Super El Niño Impact: 376 Districts, Including 27 in Odisha, Receive Normal-to-Excess Rain Till Aug 5; Minister Flags Higher September Risk | Special Report

Bhubaneswar: Even as the El Niño phenomenon has remained in play since May, rainfall data from 741 districts across the country, including Odisha, has painted a picture that appears to defy the conventional impact of Pacific warming on the southwest monsoon.

The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) district-wise rainfall statistics till August 5 show that 376 districts have received normal to excess rainfall, while 348 districts remain in deficient or largely deficient category.

In Odisha too, 27 of the state's 30 districts have recorded normal to large excess rainfall, underlining how the southwest monsoon has, so far, largely resisted the expected suppressive influence of El Niño.

The district-wise IMD data shows that 265 districts, including seven in Odisha, recorded normal rainfall, while 81 districts, including 15 from Odisha, received excess rainfall. Another 30 districts, including five in Odisha, registered large excess rainfall till August 5.

On the other hand, 319 districts, including three from Odisha, remained rainfall deficient, while 39 districts reported large deficient rainfall, with none from Odisha falling in the latter category.

The encouraging national picture assumes significance as Union Earth Sciences Minister Jitendra Singh informed the Lok Sabha on Wednesday that since 1950, India has witnessed 16 El Niño years, but only seven of them resulted in below-normal monsoon rainfall, indicating that El Niño alone does not determine India's seasonal rainfall performance.

However, the Minister also delivered a significant caution.

He told Parliament that historically, El Niño exhibits a much stronger inverse relationship with rainfall during the latter half of the southwest monsoon, particularly in September.

In simple terms, the stronger the El Niño matures, the greater becomes the probability of rainfall declining during September.

The obvious question now is: Will Odisha, despite enjoying an active July and a healthy rainfall performance till early August, witness a dry September?

The historical data and evolving global climate signals suggest that the final chapter of the 2026 monsoon may yet remain unwritten.

Why September Most Vulnerable Monsoon Month

Meteorologically, September is widely regarded as the month when El Niño exerts its maximum influence over the Indian monsoon.

During June and July, strong land heating over the Indian subcontinent, vigorous cross-equatorial monsoon winds and frequent Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems often overpower a developing El Niño.

This explains why July 2026 witnessed repeated depressions over the Bay, bringing widespread rainfall across Odisha and eastern India despite warming in the Pacific.

By September, however, the atmospheric dynamics undergo a major transition.

A mature El Niño alters the Walker Circulation, strengthening descending dry air over South Asia. The monsoon trough gradually shifts northwards towards the Himalayan foothills, the low-level southwesterly winds weaken, and formation of Bay of Bengal depressions becomes less frequent. The combined effect suppresses cloud formation and reduces rainfall precisely when the southwest monsoon enters its withdrawal phase.

This is why historical IMD datasets consistently show that September has the strongest inverse correlation with El Niño among all four monsoon months.

August Likely Active; September Could Witness El Niño-pIOD Tug of War

For Odisha, the immediate outlook remains relatively favourable through August.

Strong cross-equatorial winds continue to transport abundant moisture into the Bay of Bengal, maintaining a cyclonically active basin capable of generating fresh low-pressure systems and depressions. As long as this circulation remains vigorous, Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand are likely to continue receiving beneficial rainfall.

The challenge begins in September.

Climate models indicate that the 2026 El Niño is expected to strengthen further, increasing its influence over atmospheric circulation.

At the same time, another major ocean-atmosphere phenomenon – the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) – is projected to emerge.

The two climate drivers are expected to work in opposite directions.

While El Niño tends to weaken monsoon winds, suppress cloud formation and reduce Bay of Bengal systems, the Positive IOD enhances moisture transport from the Indian Ocean towards India, partly compensating for El Niño's drying influence.

The problem, however, lies in timing.

Current projections suggest the pIOD may develop only from September onwards, meaning it may arrive too late to completely offset the early September drying caused by a peaking El Niño.

Consequently, meteorologists see a reasonable possibility of early September witnessing reduced rainfall, followed by some revival during the latter half of the month, especially over eastern coastal regions including Odisha.

1997 and 2019: When Positive IOD Defied El Niño

History offers two remarkable examples where a strong Positive Indian Ocean Dipole completely altered the expected El Niño outcome.

1997: The Super El Niño That Failed to Trigger Drought

The 1997 Super El Niño, among the strongest ever recorded, had initially raised fears of a severe drought across India.

Instead, an exceptionally strong Positive IOD developed simultaneously.

The western Indian Ocean warmed dramatically while waters near Indonesia cooled sharply, creating an enormous moisture conveyor towards India.

The result surprised forecasters.

Despite the Super El Niño, India finished the season with near-normal monsoon rainfall, as September rainfall recovered substantially under the influence of the powerful Positive IOD.

2019: Record Positive IOD Produced a Monsoon Revival

The 2019 monsoon followed a similar script.

An early-season El Niño delayed monsoon progress, but a record-breaking Positive IOD strengthened rapidly by August and September.

The enhanced moisture convergence generated widespread late-season rainfall, making 2019 one of India's wettest monsoon years in nearly 25 years, despite the Pacific warming signal.

These two years established one important lesson – a sufficiently strong and early Positive IOD can override even a powerful El Niño.

2026 Differs Because the Positive IOD Is Arriving Late

The biggest difference between 1997, 2019 and 2026 lies not in the existence of the Positive IOD, but in its timing.

Unlike those years, when the Positive IOD became active during May-July and remained robust through the peak monsoon months, climate projections indicate that the 2026 Positive IOD may only begin strengthening from September.

By then, the El Niño is expected to be nearing its peak intensity.

This timing mismatch significantly reduces the ability of the Positive IOD to completely rescue September rainfall.

Instead, the most probable scenario emerging from available projections suggests:

• August: Continued active Bay of Bengal, above-normal rainfall over eastern India, including Odisha.
• Early September: Increased probability of dry spells as El Niño suppresses low-pressure formation.
• Late September: Partial rainfall recovery if the Positive IOD strengthens sufficiently.
• Post-monsoon: Greater possibility of an active North-East Monsoon benefiting parts of eastern coastal India and southern Peninsula.

The Bigger Message: El Niño No Longer Dictates India's Monsoon Alone

The government's latest data reinforces an important climatological shift.

The fact that only seven out of sixteen El Niño years since 1950 actually produced below-normal monsoon rainfall highlights that India's rainfall today is increasingly influenced by multiple interacting climate systems rather than Pacific warming alone.

Successive Bay of Bengal depressions, monsoon trough positioning, regional atmospheric circulation and the Indian Ocean Dipole are increasingly modifying or even neutralising El Niño's influence during the peak monsoon months.

Yet, the Minister's warning also reminds policymakers and farmers not to become complacent.

With September historically being the most El Niño-sensitive month, the performance of the late monsoon will determine whether the current rainfall surplus translates into a comfortable seasonal finish or gives way to an extended dry spell.

For Odisha, the good news is that 27 districts have remained in the normal-to-excess rainfall category till August 5. But the next four weeks could prove decisive.

If El Niño strengthens faster than the Positive IOD develops, the state may witness a noticeable weakening of rainfall during early September before any possible late-season recovery.

The final verdict on the 2026 monsoon, therefore, may depend less on what happened in July and more on how the Pacific and Indian Oceans interact during the monsoon's closing act. 

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