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New Delhi, Oct 1 : Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi on Thursday said Odisha and Chhattisgarh have moved closer to resolving the long-pending Mahanadi water dispute following a meeting chaired by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi. The meeting was held at Kartavya Bhavan and began around 5 pm. Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai and Union Jal Shakti Minister CR Patil were also present. Speaking after the meeting, the Odisha CM said discussions between the two states were held in a cordial atmosphere and that considerable progress had been made at both the legal and administrative levels. "The two states have moved closer to a solution. A roadmap for resolving the dispute will be finalised very soon," Majhi said. He added that the two states had taken three months' time during the meeting held in July to work towards a solution. Two months have now passed, he said, adding that he remained hopeful of a resolution. Majhi also said several suggestions were made during Thursday's meeting under Shah's chairmanship. What Is The Mahanadi Water Dispute? The Mahanadi water dispute between Odisha and Chhattisgarh has continued for more than a decade. Odisha has raised concerns over upstream projects in Chhattisgarh and their impact on downstream water flow, particularly during the non-monsoon period. The Mahanadi Water Disputes Tribunal was constituted in 2018 after Odisha approached the Supreme Court. Technical discussions between the two states have continued with the involvement of the Central Water Commission (CWC). Also Read : Mahanadi Water Dispute: On September 28, Will Odisha’s Long-Running River Row Go the Sone-Kishau Way? Fresh Push For Settlement The latest meeting follows a July 30 meeting between the two chief ministers chaired by Union Jal Shakti Minister CR Patil. The Centre has been facilitating discussions aimed at an amicable settlement through dialogue and technical cooperation. Majhi and Sai also held discussions in Bhubaneswar on September 20. Sai had subsequently expressed confidence that the dispute could be resolved soon. The latest talks in Delhi are part of the ongoing efforts to find a mutually acceptable solution to the Mahanadi water-sharing issue.

Bhubaneswar : The Southwest Monsoon may withdraw from Odisha as early as October 10, marking a relatively early transition to the post-monsoon season,. An analysis of the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Extended Range Weather Outlook, National Center for Climate and Statistics (NCICS) forecasts and National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) GLB model projections points towards a convergence of large-scale atmospheric patterns that could accelerate the monsoon retreat very soon. Monsoon withdrawal from Odisha could be completed by October 10 The most significant signal in the NCMRWF, NCICS outlook is the projected transition in lower-tropospheric wind patterns over eastern India during the first week of October. The IMD outlook also indicates that atmospheric conditions are becoming favourable for the progressive withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from eastern and northeastern India, along with parts of the northern region. The NCMRWF GLB model projections provide further insight into this transition. The 1.5km wind fields, representing circulation in the lower troposphere, indicate a gradual weakening of the moist southwesterly flow over Odisha and adjoining regions. The forecast sequence for October 6 and 8 points towards a transition in wind direction, followed by the establishment of a more pronounced continental airflow by October 11. The projected change in wind circulation is a key indicator of the monsoon's retreat. As the southwesterly flow weakens, moisture transport from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal into eastern India is expected to decline. The emergence of northeasterly and northwesterly winds over Odisha would further support the transition towards drier atmospheric conditions. The model's October 11 projection shows an anticyclonic curvature over central and adjoining eastern India, with the lower-level winds over Odisha turning towards the northeast and northwest. Such a circulation pattern is consistent with the establishment of continental air movement in place of the prevailing monsoonal flow. Taken together, these signals suggest that the withdrawal process could progress rapidly over Odisha, with the state potentially entering the post-monsoon phase by October 10. The expected retreat is also significant for the broader atmospheric transition over eastern India. The weakening of the monsoon trough and the reduction in moisture-laden winds could limit widespread rainfall activity, although isolated rainfall cannot be ruled out in the presence of localised weather systems. IMD outlook points to Andaman Sea disturbance around October 12–13 While the mainland is expected to experience a progressive reduction in monsoonal activity, the atmospheric focus could shift towards the Andaman Sea during the second week of October. The IMD's Extended Range Outlook indicates the possible development of an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the North Andaman Sea around October 12. The circulation could strengthen low-level convergence and support the formation of a low-pressure area over the wider Andaman Sea region around October 13. This projected development coincides with the seasonal transition in the northern Indian Ocean, when changes in atmospheric circulation can support the formation of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. However, the presence of a cyclonic circulation or a low-pressure area does not, by itself, indicate that a depression or cyclone will develop. The projected movement of the system after its formation will be a critical factor in determining its subsequent intensity. According to the IMD outlook examined, the disturbance could move westward or southwestward from the Andaman Sea towards the southern and central Bay of Bengal around October 15. Significantly, the IMD outlook clearly states that a low probability of cyclogenesis over the central and southern Bay during this period. This suggests that the initial disturbance may encounter atmospheric conditions that restrict its further organisation, despite the availability of warm ocean waters. The distinction between the formation of a low-pressure area and its intensification into a depression is particularly important in assessing the October weather outlook. NCMRWF model indicates strong westerlies could restrict cyclogenesis The NCMRWF model's mid-tropospheric projections offer a possible explanation for the low cyclogenesis probability indicated in the IMD outlook. The 500 hPa wind and geopotential-height fields for October 11 show a pronounced westerly trough extending southward across northern and central India, with its influence reaching latitudes close to 20°N. The projected circulation places a belt of westerly winds across parts of the northern and central Bay of Bengal. This is meteorologically significant because tropical systems require a sufficiently favourable vertical wind profile to maintain an organised circulation and sustain deep convection. Vertical wind shear refers to the change in wind speed or direction with altitude. When shear becomes strong, it can displace the upper-level convection from the low-level circulation of a developing tropical system. This separation can weaken the system's warm-core structure and disrupt the sustained thunderstorm activity needed for intensification. The GLB projections indicate that the westerly flow at 500 hPa could create such an unfavourable environment over parts of the Bay. If this pattern persists as the Andaman Sea disturbance moves westward, the developing system could face difficulties in maintaining vertical alignment. The model's lower-tropospheric and mid-tropospheric fields therefore point towards two concurrent developments: a transition to drier continental airflow over Odisha, and a potentially sheared environment over the Bay of Bengal. Their simultaneous occurrence could play an important role in determining the evolution of the projected low-pressure system. However, vertical wind shear is only one of several factors governing tropical cyclogenesis. Sea-surface temperatures, mid-level humidity, low-level vorticity, upper-level divergence and the system's actual track will also influence its development. The projected westerly trough should consequently be considered a potential constraint on intensification rather than a guarantee that the system will weaken. NCICS OLR forecasts indicate suppressed convection over central Bay The NCICS OLR forecast panels provide another dimension to the assessment by highlighting the projected distribution of tropical convection during October 14–20. The NCICS OLR analysis indicates a broad area of positive anomalies extending across much of the Indian landmass and into parts of the central Bay of Bengal during the October 14–20 period. This projected pattern is consistent with a relatively suppressed convective environment over the region. In contrast, areas of enhanced convection are indicated near the eastern maritime boundary, including parts of the Andaman Sea and adjoining waters towards Southeast Asia. This spatial distribution is important because the projected low-pressure area is expected to emerge in the eastern part of the Bay before potentially moving westward. If the forecast pattern verifies, the disturbance could move from a region with relatively favourable convective conditions into areas where deep convection is more restricted. Such a transition could reduce the system's access to sustained thunderstorm activity and limit its ability to organise further. The positive OLR anomalies over the central Bay also broadly complement the mid-level circulation pattern projected by NCMRWF. While the OLR fields indicate the distribution of convective activity, the GLB wind fields point towards the possible dynamical factors contributing to that distribution. The two model indicators, therefore, offer complementary rather than identical evidence. Positive OLR anomalies alone cannot establish the presence of subsidence or rule out the development of a tropical system. Their significance becomes clearer when assessed alongside wind circulation, moisture availability and the IMD's probabilistic outlook. How monsoon withdrawal and Bay conditions are interconnected The projected monsoon retreat over Odisha and the low cyclogenesis probability over the Bay of Bengal may be linked to the same large-scale atmospheric reorganisation, although the relationship is not necessarily a direct cause-and-effect process. The weakening of the monsoon circulation over eastern India is expected to coincide with changes in lower-level moisture transport and the establishment of continental airflow. The NCMRWF projections suggest that the developing anticyclonic circulation over central India could help sustain this transition, while the mid-level westerly trough could influence wind shear over the Bay. The projected northeasterly and northwesterly winds over Odisha may also change the regional moisture distribution. A reduction in the supply of maritime moisture could contribute to drier conditions over eastern India. If dry air is transported into the environment of a developing low-pressure system, entrainment of this air into convective clouds may further restrict thunderstorm development. At the same time, large-scale sinking air associated with anticyclonic circulation can suppress the upward movement of moist air required for deep convection. The positive OLR anomalies projected over the central Bay are consistent with this possibility, although the actual strength and spatial extent of subsidence will need to be assessed through subsequent forecast updates. The combined atmospheric pattern could therefore create a less favourable environment for the westward-moving disturbance. Nevertheless, the monsoon's withdrawal from Odisha does not automatically prevent cyclogenesis over the Bay. Tropical systems can develop under a range of post-monsoon circulation patterns, and changes in the location or strength of the projected trough could alter the current assessment. October 15 emerges as a key monitoring date The October 12–15 period will be particularly important for monitoring whether the projected upper-air circulation over the North Andaman Sea develops into a low-pressure area and how the system subsequently tracks. The October 14–20 NCICS OLR forecast window and the NCMRWF mid-level circulation projections provide an indication of the environment the disturbance could encounter. However, extended-range forecasts are subject to uncertainty, particularly regarding the precise location, intensity and movement of developing tropical systems. The emerging October outlook, based on the forecast analysis, points towards an early withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from Odisha, potentially by October 10, alongside a low probability of cyclogenesis over the central and southern Bay around October 15. The combination of the IMD's extended-range assessment, NCICS's projected convective suppression and NCMRWF's circulation patterns provides a coherent meteorological explanation for this scenario, but not a definitive assurance against cyclone formation. Also Read: EXCLUSIVE| Odisha On Alert: Another September 23-like System Brewing? Winds Signal Monsoon Exit from Oct 1, October Heat to Loom!