Argus News | Odisha News Today

Bhubaneswar: The developing Bay of Bengal system is increasingly showing a southern landfall bias , with the combined reading of the India Meteorological Department's latest warning chronology and UW-CIMSS mid-level steering winds pointing towards a likely crossing near Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh's Srikakulam district on Wednesday morning, September 23 . The important distinction is that this is an analytical track assessment , rather than a formally declared IMD landfall point. IMD's September 21 update says the well-marked low-pressure area over the northwest Bay is very likely to become a depression and subsequently a deep depression during the next 48 hours. At the same time, its warning sequence places the strongest weather over Coastal Andhra ahead of the peak Odisha phase: Coastal Andhra has been put under a very heavy-rain warning on September 22 and extremely heavy rain with strong winds on September 23 and 24. Odisha's warning sequence is slightly displaced in time, with very heavy rain on September 22, extremely heavy rain on September 23–24 and very heavy rain on September 25. That timing becomes significant when read against the UW-CIMSS 850–500 hPa steering field to derive this analysis. The steering flow is keeping the system on a southern corridor The CIMSS low-to-mid-level wind-barb chart shows a broad easterly to east-southeasterly flow pushing towards the west-northwest. For a system whose movement is being determined largely by the lower and middle troposphere, this provides a fairly coherent steering corridor towards the north Andhra–south Odisha sector . The CIMSS analysis places the system inside a very low vertical-wind-shear environment, with the centre lying within a 0–5-knot shear zone . The shear-tendency chart also indicates a reduction of roughly 5–10 knots during the preceding 24 hours around the system. That combination favours preservation of the circulation and a gradual organisation towards deep-depression intensity. More importantly for the track, the 850-500 hPa steering analysis shows the dominant flow running west-northwestwards towards the coast, while the northern part of the steering environment offers resistance to an early northward turn. The combined interpretation therefore shifts the landfall probability towards Kalingapatnam/Srikakulam rather than a Odisha landfall . The emerging track The likely sequence, based on the combined indicators, is: Bay of Bengal → north Andhra coast near Kalingapatnam → west-northwest inland → Telangana → gradual weakening/turn towards north. This explains an important feature of the rainfall forecast: Andhra Pradesh receives the first major core impact, while Odisha remains under the northern and northeastern moisture shield for a longer period. The analysis, further, puts the likely landfall around Kalingapatnam on September 23, followed by an inland west-northwest trajectory towards Telangana. What the landfall could mean for Andhra Pradesh The direct landfall zone would experience the strongest combination of rain, thunderstorms and squally winds. IMD's current Coastal Andhra warning calls for extremely heavy rain on September 23 and 24, accompanied by thunderstorms/lightning and strong surface winds. The IMD weather assessment places the strongest squalls around 50–60 kmph, gusting to about 70 kmph in the core coastal impact zone. District-wise impact assessment — Andhra Pradesh Andhra Pradesh district/sector Most active period Rainfall character Wind/weather impact Expected concern Srikakulam Sept 22–24; peak Sept 23 Very heavy to extremely heavy Squally winds; around 50–60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph near core Direct/near-direct landfall impact; waterlogging, local flooding Vizianagaram Sept 22–24 Very heavy to extremely heavy Strong surface winds and thunderstorms Heavy runoff, tree/utility disruption Visakhapatnam Sept 22–24 Heavy to very heavy, locally higher Squalls/thunderstorms Urban drainage stress and coastal disruption North Coastal Andhra Sept 22–24 Very heavy to extremely heavy Strong winds/thundersqualls Broad coastal rain shield and rough conditions Rayalaseema Sept 21–25 Mainly heavy rain/thunderstorms Strong surface winds Inland rain as system influence expands westward The Rayalaseema warning is notably different from Coastal Andhra: IMD currently maintains thunderstorms and strong surface winds through September 25, but without the same extremely-heavy-rain signal seen over Coastal Andhra. Odisha: rain arrives in waves, not as a single landfall burst Odisha's weather story is therefore likely to be less about direct landfall winds and more about the large moisture canopy trailing north and northeast of the inland-moving depression . The CIMSS water-vapour interpretation shows the moisture shield extending well north of the circulation. That is why the first significant rain develops in southern Odisha before progressively expanding into central and northern districts. Odisha district-wise rainfall timeline Odisha districts Rain arrival Peak window Rainfall potential Wind/other impact Ganjam, Gajapati Sept 22 Sept 22–23 Extremely heavy, locally >200 mm Squalls 50–60 kmph, gusting to 70 kmph; coastal flooding risk Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada Sept 22 afternoon/night Sept 23–24 Heavy to very heavy, 115–200 mm potential Rapid stream rise, flash-flood risk in hilly terrain Puri, Jagatsinghpur Sept 22 night Sept 23–24 Heavy to very heavy Persistent rain, drainage congestion Nayagarh, Kandhamal, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Nuapada Sept 23 Sept 23–25 Heavy, around 70–115 mm potential Prolonged rain as system tracks inland Boudh, Angul, Dhenkanal Sept 23 Sept 24–25 Heavy Catchment inflow and local drainage stress Bolangir, Sonepur, Bargarh, Sambalpur Sept 24 Sept 24–26 Moderate to heavy Runoff accumulation as system weakens/turns Keonjhar, Jharsuguda, Sundargarh, Deogarh, Mayurbhanj Sept 24 night Sept 25–26 Mainly moderate, locally heavy Residual rain from weakening system These timings follow the moisture-footprint assessment, which places the earliest persistent rain over Ganjam-Gajapati, followed by the southern interior and then progressively central and northern Odisha. September 22: South Odisha becomes the first impact zone The first meaningful phase begins Tuesday. Ganjam and Gajapati are expected to see the earliest persistent rain, while Malkangiri, Koraput and Rayagada can begin receiving significant rain from Tuesday afternoon into the night. This is important because the system itself may still be offshore or approaching the Andhra coast, yet its moisture field is already reaching Odisha. September 23: the system crosses Andhra while southern Odisha enters the core rain phase Wednesday is likely to become the key transition day. If the centre crosses close to Kalingapatnam in the morning, the immediate coastal Andhra sector will receive the strongest wind and rainfall impact. But over Odisha, the southern districts can remain beneath the northern moisture conveyor. The assessment places Ganjam-Gajapati at the highest rainfall risk , with the southern interior districts also entering a heavy to very heavy rainfall phase. September 24: Odisha's wider rainfall peak Thursday could become the most important rainfall day for a large part of Odisha. By then, the depression would be inland, but its circulation and moisture field would continue feeding rainbands across Odisha. The system's west-northwest movement towards Telangana means that Odisha is likely to remain on the northern side of the circulation. This is also consistent with IMD's current warning schedule, which keeps extremely heavy rainfall over Odisha on September 24 , even as the direct landfall phase is occurring farther south in Andhra Pradesh. September 25–26: the rain shifts inland and northward By Friday, the system should be considerably farther inland. The rainfall focus consequently shifts from the southern districts towards western and interior Odisha. Bolangir, Sonepur, Bargarh and Sambalpur could remain wet through September 26, while northern districts see the weakening system's residual influence. The critical point is that landfall does not mean the end of Odisha's weather threat . The track through Telangana would keep the moisture plume active over Odisha even after the circulation itself has moved away from the coast. The larger weather picture The emerging scenario is therefore a two-stage impact : Stage 1 – September 22–23: Southern Odisha and north Coastal Andhra receive the first and strongest coastal-sector weather. Stage 2 – September 24–26: As the depression moves inland towards Telangana and subsequently curves north, its moisture field continues to generate widespread rain across Odisha. That makes the likely Kalingapatnam landfall particularly important: the centre may stay south of Odisha, but the rainfall footprint will not. Also Read: Exclusive | Bay of Bengal System Set to Form Powerful Deep Depression, Not Cyclone; Landfall Expected Between Srikakulam and Chhatrapur

Bhubaneswar: Odisha's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has ended with a striking mismatch at its heart: the state has added nearly 2.46 lakh net voters to the draft roll, but the 10.07 lakh voters classified as migrated or absent during the initial deletion exercise have not returned as a distinct category in the final roll . The final electoral roll published on Monday contains 3,16,32,754 electors , up from 3,13,87,034 in the July 5 draft – a net increase of 2,45,720 . But the increase does not represent a corresponding restoration of the 10.07 lakh voters who were left out during the first stage of the SIR. That distinction changes the way the final SIR numbers need to be read. The initial revision had removed 20,12,557 names from the pre-SIR electorate of 3,33,99,591. Of these, around 10.07 lakh were classified as migrated/absent , 8.32 lakh as deceased and 1.58 lakh as duplicate entries. The July draft therefore fell to 3.13 crore electors. The final exercise did not reverse that 10.07-lakh block. The numbers that matter SIR stage Electors Pre-revision electorate 3,33,99,591 Draft roll — July 5 3,13,87,034 Initial exclusion 20,12,557 Final roll — September 21 3,16,32,754 Net increase over draft 2,45,720 The Election Commission's final figures show that 2,90,497 electors were added during the claims, objections and verification phase, while 44,777 entries were deleted from the draft roll. The resulting arithmetic is straightforward: 2,90,497 additions – 44,777 deletions = 2,45,720 net increase. This is important because the nearly 2.46 lakh net increase cannot be presented as a restoration of the 10.07 lakh migrated/absent voters. The 10.07-lakh question The draft-stage classification had put approximately 10.07 lakh electors in the migrated/absent category , accounting for about 3.02% of the electorate at that stage. The same broad figure remained in the finalised deletion data supplied for the SIR. In other words, the final roll did not show a category-wise reversal of that original deletion. This creates the central distinction in the final SIR story: New voters were added. But that is not the same as restoring the voters who disappeared during the first enumeration. The final additions therefore have to be read as a separate stream of enrolment and restoration applications rather than as a wholesale recovery of the migrant/absent population. Where the 2.49 lakh came from The final numbers show that 2,90,497 electors were added during the post-draft process. At the same time, 44,777 entries failed subsequent verification and were deleted . The result was a net gain of 2,45,720 voters , taking Odisha's electorate from 3.13 crore in the draft to 3.16 crore in the final roll. So, strictly speaking, the headline figure of 2.49 lakh refers to the rounded net increase of 2.46 lakh , rather than 2.49 lakh gross additions. The gross addition figure is 2.90 lakh. That distinction matters in a story about SIR because otherwise the numbers can suggest that 2.49 lakh of the original deleted voters were brought back. They were not. The Gender Signal: Female Voter Ratio Falls After SIR There is another important signal in the final electoral data: Odisha's female-to-male voter ratio has declined following the SIR . Before the revision, Odisha's electoral roll had a gender ratio of 974 female voters per 1,000 male voters . In the final roll published in September 2026, the ratio stands at 961 females per 1,000 males . That represents a decline of 13 female voters per 1,000 male voters . The change becomes significant when read alongside the scale of the initial SIR exclusions. The first-stage exercise removed more than 20 lakh names , including around 10.07 lakh electors classified as migrated/absent . The subsequent claims and verification process added 2,90,497 electors and removed another 44,777, producing a net increase of 2,45,720 over the draft roll. The gender data therefore adds another dimension to the SIR outcome: the final electorate has grown from the July draft, but the female share relative to male electors remains lower than the pre-revision level . This does not, by itself, establish that the decline in the gender ratio was caused entirely by the deletion of migrant or absent voters. The aggregate figures do not provide a category-wise gender breakdown of the 10.07 lakh deleted electors. But the movement from 974 to 961 is an important demographic indicator that merits closer examination – particularly in a state where large-scale labour migration means that a substantial number of working-age voters may spend periods outside their home districts or outside Odisha. The final roll thus presents two parallel outcomes: a net addition of voters after the draft, alongside a lower female-to-male voter ratio than before the SIR . Why the migrant-worker issue matters The most difficult question concerns voters who were physically away from their Odisha homes during the enumeration and verification process. The SIR process was built around house-to-house enumeration by Booth Level Officers. The Election Commission had said that voters who could not submit enumeration forms during the initial phase could subsequently apply through Form 6 with the prescribed declaration during the claims and objections period. But for a worker living hundreds or thousands of kilometres away from his or her native village, the practical question was different. A worker employed in Surat, Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad or another industrial centre could be absent when the BLO visited the registered address. As a consequence, such voters faced a greater practical burden in responding to notices, attending local verification or producing supporting documentation within the prescribed period. That is where the SIR's migration dimension becomes significant. The issue is not that migration itself makes someone ineligible to vote in Odisha. Rather, long-term or seasonal migration can make physical verification at the home address substantially more difficult . For a state with a large population working outside Odisha, that creates a very different electoral-roll problem from simply identifying deceased or duplicate voters. A very different problem from dead or duplicate names The three major deletion categories had fundamentally different characteristics. Category Approx. names Nature of issue Deceased 8.32 lakh Voter no longer alive Migrated/absent 10.07 lakh Voter could not be located/was reported shifted or absent Duplicate 1.58 lakh Multiple registrations Total 20.12 lakh Initial exclusion The distinction is crucial. A deceased elector cannot be restored. A genuine duplicate entry should normally be eliminated from one location. But a genuine elector who is temporarily working outside Odisha is a different case . The question raised by the final numbers is therefore not simply how many names were cleaned from the roll. It is how effectively the system distinguished permanent migration from temporary absence and ensured that genuine migrant electors could re-establish their enrolment . Odisha's migration map is visible in the deletion numbers The district pattern also gives the SIR a distinctly migration-linked dimension. Ganjam recorded the highest absolute deletion at 2,07,624 , followed by Cuttack at 1,55,166, Balangir at 1,11,267, Nayagarh at 1,05,014 and Jajpur at 99,258. Malkangiri recorded the highest percentage reduction at about 10.2%. Ganjam's position is particularly significant because of its large migrant population and extensive labour movement outside the state. The numbers therefore show that SIR's effect was not evenly distributed across Odisha. Some of the state's migration-prone districts experienced substantially larger electoral-roll reductions than others. The final roll is cleaner – but the migrant question remains The Election Commission's stated objective of SIR is to ensure that eligible citizens are not left out while ineligible entries are excluded. The ECI had explicitly described the exercise as one intended to ensure that every eligible Indian citizen aged 18 or above on the qualifying date is registered. Odisha's final numbers show that the revision achieved a substantial clean-up while also adding nearly 2.46 lakh net electors after the draft. But the data also leaves a separate question over the 10.07 lakh migrated/absent voters initially excluded from the draft . The final roll demonstrates that Odisha added voters after the draft. It does not , from the figures released, demonstrate that the original 10.07 lakh migrated/absent voters were collectively restored. That is the crucial distinction. What the final SIR actually changed The transformation can therefore be read in three stages: First: Odisha started with roughly 3.34 crore electors . Second: the enumeration exercise produced a draft roll of 3.13 crore , after 20.12 lakh names were excluded, including 10.07 lakh classified as migrated/absent. Third: the claims and verification process added 2.90 lakh electors , deleted another 44,777 , and produced a final electorate of 3.16 crore . The final figure is therefore higher than the draft—but still roughly 17.67 lakh below the pre-SIR electorate . That gap is the bigger number behind Monday's final roll. The bigger story behind 2.46 lakh The headline number is 2,45,720 net additions . The bigger structural number is 20,12,557 initial exclusions . And within that initial exclusion, the most consequential category for a migration-dependent state is the 10.07 lakh classified as migrated/absent . The final SIR has therefore settled one question—how many electors are on the revised roll—but left a more important administrative question in view: How many genuine Odisha voters who were outside their home districts or the state during enumeration were able to successfully re-establish their names on the electoral roll? The released aggregate figures do not provide a category-wise answer to that question. That is why the final SIR should not be read merely as a story of 2.49 lakh new voters . It is equally a story of a 10-lakh migrated/absent voter pool whose restoration cannot be established from the final aggregate additions. And there is a second unanswered question: why did Odisha's female-to-male electoral ratio fall from 974 before the revision to 961 in the final roll? Also Read: 20 Lakh Names Deleted from Odisha SIR Voter List; 10 Lakh 'Shifted or Absent', Migrants Must Verify Before Aug 4 | Special Report