No Flood Relief Seems for Odisha: 3 Model Forecasts See Fresh Low Around Sept 9; Check Rain in Your District | Exclusive

Bhubaneswar: The 2026 El Niño year may well be remembered in Odisha’s weather annals for how a serial formation of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal has seemingly foiled the expected impact of the climate phenomenon, watering down fears of a below-normal monsoon across the State.

Even as the current well-marked low-pressure area has triggered a fresh flood threat in the Mahanadi basin, a rare consensus among three weather forecast models now points to the possibility of yet another low-pressure area developing over the northwest Bay around September 9.

The timing could prove crucial. The model projections suggest the next weather system may emerge just as Odisha is attempting to recover from the flood peak expected between September 6 and 8, raising the possibility of back-to-back spells of rain over already saturated river basins.

Why 2026 Poured Water Over El Niño Predictions

The 2026 monsoon season had appeared set to follow the familiar El Niño script, with expectations of below-normal rainfall and prolonged dry spells. Indeed, the season began with a sharp rainfall deficit. But the weather pattern subsequently changed dramatically as the Bay of Bengal repeatedly generated rain-bearing systems.

According to the available data, two low-pressure areas in July and three in August were formed, with the latest system intensifying into a well-marked low-pressure area around August 29-30. The result has been a pattern of sharp rainfall recovery after the early dry phase, with individual systems delivering concentrated rainfall over Odisha and its river catchments.

That is where 2026 appears to have diverged from the conventional El Niño expectation.

Rather than a continuous sequence of widespread rain spells, Odisha has seen intermittent but powerful rain-bearing systems.

In short, the El Niño may have suppressed the number of systems, but it has not prevented the systems that did form from delivering significant rainfall over the State. The result is a monsoon that has repeatedly bounced back after dry breaks, with every major Bay system now carrying the potential to sharply alter Odisha’s flood situation.

Current Well-Marked Low: Check Rain in Your District

While Odisha braces for the downstream impact of the current system, model rainfall projections indicate a broad spread of rain across coastal, central, northern and western parts of the State.

Heavy rain core: 40 mm and above

The heavier rainfall contour is projected over the coastal and delta belt, covering Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri, Kendrapara, Khordha and Jajpur. Central districts such as Dhenkanal and Angul, along with parts of Nayagarh, are also placed in the heavier rain zone.

This cluster is particularly significant because several of these districts are directly connected to the Mahanadi and other river systems already responding to heavy upstream inflows.

Moderate to heavy rain: 20-40 mm

The widespread rain belt extends northward and westward into Bhadrak, Balasore, Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar and Sundargarh, while Sambalpur, Deogarh, Jharsuguda, Bargarh, Boudh and Sonepur also fall within the 20-40 mm rainfall contour.

Rain in these districts assumes added importance as several of them cover upper catchments or contribute to the Brahmani, Baitarani and Mahanadi river systems.

Lighter rain outlook

The southern and southwestern belt – Ganjam, Gajapati, Kandhamal, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Nabarangpur, Kalahandi and Nuapada – is projected to remain on the outer edge of the active weather system, with relatively lighter rainfall indicated.

Fresh Low Around Sept 9: Three Models See a Common Signal

The bigger concern now lies beyond the current flood spell.

Three separate model products – ECMWF, CFS and NCMRWF – are showing a broadly similar signal for renewed weather activity around September 9.

The ECMWF chart valid for September 9 indicates a closed low-pressure area of around 1004 hPa over the northwest Bay of Bengal, close to the north Odisha-West Bengal coast. The projection also shows a cyclonic circulation capable of pulling moisture from the Bay and directing rainfall towards the Odisha coast.

The CFS weekly rainfall anomaly forecast for September 5-11 separately indicates above-normal convective activity over the Bay of Bengal and east-central India, providing a favourable large-scale environment for another rain-bearing system.

The third signal comes from the the country's ace model forecaster, NCMRWF, which projects a rain-bearing zone extending across coastal and central Odisha around September 9, including the Mahanadi delta region and adjoining catchments.

The three forecasts do not guarantee that the system will evolve in exactly the same manner or follow the same track. But the convergence of signals on renewed weather activity around the same window is significant. That is the core of the concern: a fresh low may form when Odisha’s river systems are still carrying the legacy of the current flood-producing spell.

The Short Recovery Window May Be the Key

Model projections indicate that Odisha may get a relatively brief break from intense rainfall after the current system weakens, before the next weather window opens around September 9.

The forecast timeline suggests that heavy rainfall from the current system may recede by around September 2, followed by a comparatively quieter period from September 3 to 8. However, even during this rainfall break, the hydrological impact of the earlier rain may continue moving downstream through the river system.

That creates a difficult sequence for flood management. The current system’s rainfall may end, but river levels and runoff could continue affecting downstream districts. If the next low then brings fresh rain over the same coastal and central belt, the recovery window could prove too short for the soil and river system to fully reset.

For Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur and Puri, the concern is especially acute. The model analysis flags the possibility that soils could remain saturated and river levels elevated when the next system arrives, increasing the efficiency of runoff from any fresh spell of rain.

The weather models are still looking at a forecast window more than a week away, and the exact formation, intensity and track of the proposed low will evolve with subsequent runs. But for now, the message from the model consensus is clear:

Odisha may not get much of a flood relief window.
After a current system that has already pushed the Mahanadi basin into a high-alert phase, the Bay of Bengal is showing signs of becoming active again around September 9. In the 2026 El Niño year, that would be yet another reminder that fewer weather systems do not necessarily mean fewer weather risks. 
Also Read: EXCLUSIVE BREAKING: Mahanadi Flood Threat for Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri Sept 6-8 as Hirakud Opens More Gates