EXCLUSIVE BREAKING: Mahanadi Flood Threat for Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Puri Sept 6-8 as Hirakud Opens More Gates

Bhubaneswar: North Odisha districts such as Balasore and Bhadrak are set to experience heightened flood conditions over the next 24 hours, but even as system-induced rainfall across Odisha is forecast to weaken over the next 72 hours, the latest hydrological outlook does not bode well for the State.

The Central Water Commission (CWC) forecast points to a delayed flood threat in the Mahanadi basin, where accumulated runoff from the weather system and heavy inflow into Hirakud reservoir could force authorities to progressively open around 10 more sluice gates, pushing a large volume of water downstream.

The resulting flood pulse could swell the Mahanadi at Naraj in Cuttack above the danger level around September 6, with inundation risks then unfolding across Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur and Puri between September 6 and 8.

North Odisha Faces the First Flood Test

The flood threat, however, is not expected to emerge simultaneously across Odisha.

The northern river systems are forecast to react first and faster. The Jalka at Mathani Road Bridge is projected to rise to around 6.5 metres between September 2 and 4, touching or crossing its danger level. Similarly, the Baitarani at Akhuapada, already above warning level at around 17.83 metres, is projected to rise close to 18 metres, keeping Bhadrak and adjoining northern districts under close watch.

In contrast, the Mahanadi is expected to witness a delayed but potentially more serious flood pulse.

Rain May Weaken, But the Mahanadi’s Flood Clock Stays Strong

This is where the emerging situation becomes more complicated.

The weather system responsible for the widespread rain may gradually weaken over the next three days. But rivers do not respond to rainfall.

Rainfall over the vast upper Mahanadi catchment, including parts of Chhattisgarh and western Odisha, has generated a delayed runoff cycle. The forecast indicates that this accumulated runoff will move into the Hirakud reservoir over the coming days, causing a sharp rise in inflow.

The predicted inflow forecast for Hirakud points to a massive inflow spike of around 21,000 cubic metres per second around September 5-6.

Hirakud’s Gates May Open Further

As of August 30, Hirakud reservoir was at a water level of 625.08 feet, with the reservoir around 80.19% full, while five sluice gates were open.

The available storage cushion may not be enough to absorb the forecast surge indefinitely.

If inflows begin rising sharply as projected, dam authorities may have to progressively increase the discharge. The immediate escalation could involve opening around 10 additional gates, taking the number of operational gates to roughly the 12-16 range in the first phase, depending on the actual inflow and reservoir level.

The decision will ultimately depend on real-time reservoir management and cannot be treated as a fixed gate-opening forecast. But the broad hydrological signal is clear: Hirakud is likely to release more water downstream as the upper catchment inflow peaks.

The additional release will combine with runoff generated by rainfall over Odisha's central and coastal districts.

Naraj Emerges as the Next Flashpoint

The first three days may still appear relatively calm at Naraj. The trend tells a very different story.

By Monday morning, the water level at Naraj will shootup to breach the danger level by Sept 2 morning. The forecast outlines the level then easing down to below danger level, only to chug the uptrend by Sept 6. By the day, the Mahanadi at Naraj is forecast to climb sharply, potentially touching around 26.8 metres on September 6.

That is significant because Naraj's danger level is 26.41 metres.

If the projected trend holds, the Mahanadi could cross the danger mark at Cuttack around September 6, sending a major flood volume into the branching channels of the delta.

Cuttack to Face the First Major Impact

Once the water level rises sharply at Naraj, Cuttack will be the first major urban district to face the downstream impact.

The immediate risk will be concentrated in low-lying and riverine areas, including Banki, Tigiria, Athagarh and Cuttack Sadar, where backwater effects and rising river levels could inundate vulnerable pockets.

The critical window for Cuttack is expected to begin around September 6, with the peak situation potentially extending into September 7.

The concern is not merely the water level at Naraj. Once the Mahanadi flood pulse reaches the delta, the river begins distributing the enormous volume through multiple branches.

And that is when the flood threat moves east and south.

Jagatsinghpur Next in Line

From Naraj, the flood volume will move through the Mahanadi main channel and the Devi river system, taking the inundation threat towards Jagatsinghpur.

The initial spillover into agricultural land and low-lying areas could begin late on September 6, with peak inundation risk on September 7.

Low-lying pockets of Raghunathpur, Tirtol, Kujang and Erasama are among the areas that could see rising water levels. Rural roads and agricultural areas could be particularly vulnerable if water continues to accumulate in the lower delta.

Because Jagatsinghpur lies further downstream in the Mahanadi delta, the flood impact may lag behind Cuttack by several hours, creating a sequential rather than simultaneous flood pattern.

Puri Faces a Longer-Lasting Threat

Puri's flood threat could unfold even later.

The flood crest moving through the Kathajodi-Kuakhai branching system can feed the Daya, Bhargavi and Kushabhadra rivers, pushing water towards the district's low-lying plains.

The critical inundation window is projected between September 7 and September 8, with Kanas, Delanga, Pipili, Nimapada and Gop among the vulnerable pockets.

Unlike the upper reaches of Cuttack, where floodwaters can move downstream relatively quickly, Puri's geography creates a different challenge. Its flat terrain and dependence on drainage through river outlets can slow the evacuation of floodwater, increasing the risk of prolonged waterlogging and inundation.

The Sea Could Make the Flood Worse

The biggest concern for Jagatsinghpur and Puri may be the possibility of a drainage bottleneck.

The forecast indicates moderately high astronomical tides along the Odisha coast between September 6 and 8, coinciding with the expected arrival of the Mahanadi flood pulse.

When high river discharge meets high tide, the sea can slow down the discharge of delta rivers into the Bay of Bengal. This can create a backwater effect, delaying drainage and forcing water to accumulate in the lower river channels.

For Jagatsinghpur, the concern centres around the lower Mahanadi-Devi system. For Puri, the drainage bottleneck could affect the Kushabhadra, Daya and Bhargavi systems.

As a consequence, it is feared that Puri and lower Jagatsinghpur could experience a stagnation effect, with high tides potentially extending the inundation period beyond the immediate flood peak.

Odisha Floods Till Sept 8?

Odisha is, therefore, staring at a potentially two-stage flood scenario.

The first wave is expected in the northern river basins, particularly around Balasore and Bhadrak, where the Jalka and Baitarani systems are forecast to respond quickly to the recent rain.

The second, delayed and potentially more widespread wave could emerge in the Mahanadi delta.

The sequence currently indicated by the hydrological forecast is:

Balasore-Bhadrak first → Hirakud inflow rises → more water released downstream → Naraj rises sharply around Sept 6 → Cuttack faces flood pressure → Jagatsinghpur follows from Sept 6 night/Sept 7 → Puri faces peak inundation risk through Sept 8.

Thus, even if the skies over Odisha begin to clear in the next 48-72 hrs, the flood danger may still be building upstream.

The next 72 hours may see the weather system weaken. But for the Mahanadi delta, the real flood watch could begin only after the rain has passed.

Also Read: Odisha Flood Threat: Fresh Low Pressure on August 29 to Trigger Severe Multi-Basin Crisis, Know the Critical Districts| Exclusive