Bhubaneswar: After recording a worrying 47 percent rainfall deficit in June 2026 — making it the second driest June in Odisha since 1980 — the first week of July is expected to bring a major monsoon revival.

The big question, however, is whether the expected rain will simply rescue the kharif season or trigger flash floods in some parts of the state.

Weather forecasts from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) all indicate that monsoon conditions are becoming highly favourable over eastern India.

Weather models predict strong moisture-laden winds are currently sweeping across both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These winds are expected to strengthen the monsoon trough stretching from Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh into Odisha, creating ideal conditions for widespread rainfall between July 2 and July 5.

Two Different Forecast Scenarios

While all major weather models agree that Odisha will receive significant rainfall, they differ on the intensity and duration of the event.

Scenario 1: Heavy Rain, But Limited Flood Threat

The IMD and NCMRWF models suggest that a cyclonic circulation will develop over North Odisha and neighbouring Jharkhand around July 2-3.

Under this scenario, the system would move quickly towards West Bengal and Bangladesh by July 5. This means Odisha would receive widespread rain, but the system would not remain over the state for long enough to cause large-scale flooding.

For farmers, this would be the ideal outcome as it would provide much-needed rainfall without causing major damage.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Rainfall Along the Coast

The latest ECMWF forecast paints a more intense picture.

According to this model, a stronger low-pressure system could form over the northern Bay of Bengal near the West Bengal-Bangladesh coast. If this happens, strong monsoon winds would continuously push moisture towards Odisha for several days.

Such a situation could lead to prolonged heavy rainfall over coastal and northern districts, increasing the risk of waterlogging, flash floods and river swelling.

Which Areas Could Be Most Affected?

Northern River Basins Face Highest Risk

The Subarnarekha, Baitarani and Budhabalanga river systems are expected to receive the heaviest rainfall.

Heavy rain over the Chotanagpur plateau in Jharkhand and the Similipal region in Odisha could cause a rapid rise in river levels. Low-lying areas along these rivers may face localized flooding.

Brahmani Basin

Districts in both the upper and lower Brahmani basin are likely to receive widespread moderate to heavy rainfall.

If the stronger ECMWF forecast proves correct, river channels and distributaries in the lower basin could experience significant pressure due to continuous inflows.

Mahanadi Basin

The Mahanadi basin remains the key area to watch.

Under the IMD and NCMRWF forecasts, rainfall over the Mahanadi catchment would be beneficial and manageable, helping improve water storage in reservoirs including Hirakud.

However, if the ECMWF scenario unfolds, districts in the lower Mahanadi delta such as Cuttack, Khurda and Puri could receive several days of heavy rain, increasing the risk of urban flooding and drainage problems.

Southern Odisha

Districts such as Koraput, Malkangiri, Rayagada, Gajapati and Ganjam are unlikely to face severe flooding.

However, strong monsoon winds striking the Eastern Ghats are expected to produce steady rainfall, which will be beneficial for agriculture. Hilly areas should remain alert for localized landslides.

District-Wise Outlook (July 2–5)

North Interior Odisha
(Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, Deogarh)
Very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall is possible around July 3. Localized flash flooding and rapid runoff cannot be ruled out.

North Coastal Odisha
(Balasore, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapara)
Heavy to very heavy rain is likely. If the ECMWF forecast materialises, these districts could witness prolonged spells of rain accompanied by strong winds.

Twin Cities and Central Odisha
(Bhubaneswar, Cuttack, Puri, Jagatsinghpur, Angul, Dhenkanal)
Moderate to heavy rainfall is expected, with a possibility of urban waterlogging and thunderstorms.

Western Odisha
(Sambalpur, Bargarh, Boudh, Bolangir, Nuapada)
Steady and widespread rainfall is likely. The rain should largely benefit agriculture and improve soil moisture.

South Odisha
(Koraput, Malkangiri, Rayagada, Gajapati, Ganjam)
Frequent rain spells are expected, particularly in hilly areas along the Eastern Ghats.

The Bigger Picture

Regardless of which forecast proves most accurate, weather models agree on one thing: the first week of July is likely to mark a decisive turnaround in Odisha's monsoon season.

For a state that spent most of June battling rainfall deficits, drying reservoirs and growing concern among farmers, the coming days could bring much-needed relief.

The only uncertainty is whether the rain arrives as a timely agricultural lifeline or becomes Odisha's first major flood challenge of 2026. 

Also Read: OdishaRecords 2nd Driest June Since 1980; 29 Districts in Deficit as El Niño ShadowDeepens| Exclusive