Bhubaneswar: Half of June is already over. Odisha has recorded a massive rainfall deficit, and the IMD's forecast indicates largely dry conditions with only isolated to scattered rainfall until June 22.

Everything appears to point toward a disappointing June under the growing influence of El Niño.

But weather models are now signalling a dramatic reversal.

Lead global forecasters (NOAA-GFS, IMD-GFS, ECMWF) tracking climate with their high-resolution weather models say Odisha could witness a widespread monsoon revival during the last week of June, with heavy rainfall potentially extending into the first week of July.

The reason lies in a tropical atmospheric pulse known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

The MJO Signal

According to IMD's extended-range outlook, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently moving through Phases 8 and 1.

While the MJO's amplitude remains weak and below the critical threshold of one on the Real-time Multivariate MJO Index, its position is important.

Meteorologists say even a weak Phase-1 MJO can act as a catalyst for strengthening monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea.

Unlike El Niño, which operates on seasonal timescales, the MJO influences weather over shorter periods ranging from a few days to several weeks.

That makes it capable of creating temporary windows of enhanced rainfall even during an otherwise unfavourable monsoon season.

How the Rain Revival Could Begin

The mechanism is surprisingly simple.

A weak Phase-1 MJO is expected to strengthen low-level westerly winds over the Arabian Sea during the final week of June.

These stronger winds will then trigger a powerful cross-equatorial surge from the southern hemisphere into the Indian Ocean and Bay of Bengal.

As the moisture-laden winds converge over the northern Bay of Bengal, they are expected to generate a well-defined low level monsoon trough.

Once that trough forms, Odisha's rainfall pattern could change dramatically.

The surge would inject large amounts of moisture into eastern India, overcoming the dry continental winds that have dominated much of June.

Why This Matters

The current climate background remains hostile.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral and therefore offers no meaningful support to India's monsoon.

In a typical year, a positive IOD can partially offset the effects of El Niño. This year, that safety cushion is absent.

As a result, El Niño's suppressive influence has operated almost unchecked, contributing to Odisha's rainfall deficit and delaying monsoon organization across the state.

The expected late-June rainfall event is therefore not being driven by the IOD.

Instead, it is a short-lived atmospheric opportunity created by the MJO and associated wind surges.

What the Models Are Showing

Weather models are increasingly converging on a wet scenario between June 27 and June 30.

By June 21, a weak trough is expected to form over Odisha, bringing scattered light-to-moderate showers.

The real action, however, is projected to begin during the final week of June.

Both GFS and ECMWF simulations indicate:

• Strong cross-equatorial monsoon flow.
• Deepening trough formation over the Bay of Bengal.
• Significant pressure falls over the northern Bay.
• Widespread moisture convergence across Odisha.
• Heavy rainfall extending from the coast into western districts.

Pressure is expected to drop to around 1000-1002 hPa over the northern Bay, creating an environment favourable for sustained rainfall.

What Odisha Can Expect

The first phase between June 18 and June 21 is likely to bring only scattered rainfall.

The second phase between June 27 and June 30 could be entirely different.

Coastal districts including Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Ganjam and Balasore may receive between 115 mm and more than 200 mm rainfall over a few days.

Northern districts such as Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Bhadrak and Jajpur could receive 70-130 mm.

Western and southern districts including Sambalpur, Jharsuguda, Bargarh, Balangir, Kalahandi and Koraput may record 50-90 mm rainfall.

For many regions currently facing large deficits, such rainfall would significantly improve the seasonal balance before July begins.

The Forecast Verdict

Odisha's monsoon story may be about to change.

After spending most of June waiting for meaningful rainfall, the state could witness a powerful burst of monsoon activity between June 27 and June 30, with additional systems possibly emerging during the opening days of July.

If the projected trough develops as expected, the coming rain spell could erase a significant portion of Odisha's rainfall deficit and provide crucial relief to agriculture, reservoirs and groundwater systems.

In short, while El Niño may have dominated the first half of June, the monsoon seems ready to hitback.

Also Read: Monsoon On, Rain Off in Odisha: El Niño Plays the Game | Exclusive