EXCLUSIVE | Bigger Than Titli, Double of Dana: Cyclone Arnab Landfall Near Kakinada; To Hit Odisha’s Malkangiri on Oct 28 Evening –Districts on Fire Line Inside

Bhubaneswar: SEVEN HOURS from now, Cyclone Arnab will become a severe cyclonic storm. As the system continues to rapidly strengthen over the open warm waters of the Bay of Bengal, it is expected to acquire the ferocious tag of ‘Very Severe Cyclonic Storm’ by very early morning, with the satellite imagery framing the true scale of the system.

Eyes from the skies zoom on  how Cyclone Arnab looks doubly dangerous than Cyclone Dana that hit Odisha in October 2024, and almost equivalent to Cyclone Titli that battered Odisha with diabolic rainfall scripting miseries in Gajapati, Koraput et al.

The JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Centre) data measures the core punching area of Cyclone Arnab that is packed with gale force winds at around 34-knot radius spanning roughly 100 to 140 nautical miles or 185 km to 260 km. Whereas, estimates indicate the visible satellite cloud shield is far larger. It covers roughly 600 to 800 kilometers in diameter, extending massive convective cloud arms hundreds of kilometers away from the compact eye.  

With the vastness of Cyclone Arnab being clearly marked out, the numbers categorise it as a medium-size cyclonic storm. A glance at the past data gives a clear perspective on Cyclone Arnab’s standing among its predecessors that stormed the east coast of India since 2013.

Cyclone & Year	Max Intensity	Landfall Location	Gale Core (Diameter)	Total Cloud Shield
Arnab (2026)

VSCS

Kakinada, AP

184 – 260 km

~600 km

Dana (2024)

SCS

Habalikhati, Odisha

~173 km

~320 km

Amphan (2020)

SuCS

Digha, WB

~600+ km

~2,200 km

Fani (2019)

ESCS

Puri, Odisha

~350 – 400 km

~700 – 800 km

Titli (2018)

VSCS

Palasa, AP

~200 km

~550 km

Phailin (2013)

VSCS

Gopalpur, Odisha

~500 km

~1,200+ km

And based on the official IMD track and JTWC data, the cyclonic storm Arnab will be making landfall at around Kakinada with packing winds gusting at 140kmph, after encountering with high wind shear over land post landfall, Arnab would be taking a swift north poleward turn tracking and hitting the Malkangiri of Odisha by the evening of the landfall day.

·         The Coastal Strike: A Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) is expected to make landfall around the Kakinada coast of Andhra Pradesh on the forenoon of October 28, packing maximum destructive winds, a severe storm surge, and intense coastal inundation.

·         The Inland Turn: After crossing the coast, the system will rapidly weaken due to land friction but will maintain its identity as a Cyclonic Storm (CS) as it takes a sharp poleward turn, directly hitting the hilly Malkangiri district of Odisha later on October 28 into October 29.

While the direct wind threat will downgrade by the time it reaches Malkangiri, the primary hazard will shift to catastrophic, mountain-induced torrential rainfall, flash floods, and landslides across southern Odisha.

Who is in Arnab’s Line of Fire: JTWC Data reveals Big!

The latest JTWC data on wind radii showed an extreme eastern asymmetry (strongest winds concentrated in the Northeast and Southeast quadrants) of VSCS Arnab. As the storm is approaching Kakinada from the southeast, the Northeast quadrant has been demarcated as the primary danger zone.

Landfall Sector: The Kakinada & Coastal Andhra Pradesh Brunt

·         Maximum Wind Brunt (Extreme Devastation):

o    Yanam, Kakinada, and Konaseema districts will bear the absolute maximum wind brunt. They lie directly in the right-front quadrant during landfall.

o    Tuni and Visakhapatnam districts (extending 30–50 NM north of landfall) will experience intense, prolonged gale-force winds due to the expanded northeastern wind radius.

·         Storm Surge & Coastal Flooding:

o    The coastal belt from Kakinada north to Elamanchili will face the worst onshore surge. Winds in the right-hand quadrants will push massive volumes of seawater directly onto the coast.

·         Heavy Rain Brunt:

o    East Godavari, West Godavari, and Eluru districts will capture the dense, heavy convective cloud bands visible on the western/northwestern periphery of the satellite image, leading to immediate inland flash flooding.

 

Impact While Arnab Moves Over Malkangiri

When the cyclone center crosses inland and positions directly over Malkangiri (around the afternoon/night of October 28), it will be undergoing a sharp northward pivot.

Based on the IMD track map, satellite cloud presentation, and the asymmetric wind radii data, we can conduct a precise sector-by-sector analysis of the impact zones.

The storm is projected to make landfall near Kakinada as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) with sustained winds around 65 knots, before making its sharp poleward turn directly over Malkangiri.

As the storm shifts from a westward track to a sharp northward track over the rugged terrain of Malkangiri, the friction of the Eastern Ghats will cause the wind speeds to rapidly contract, dropping to Cyclonic Storm (CS) levels (~40–50 knots). However, the tracking shift alters who gets the worst of it.

·         Maximum Wind Brunt (Severe Structural Damage):

o    Malkangiri and Koraput districts will experience the direct eyewall collapse.

o    Because the storm turns north, the Eastern quadrant shifts to the right side of the track. Therefore, Rayagada, Nabarangpur, and the western fringes of Gajapati will catch the strongest remaining wind field, causing widespread damage to trees, power lines, and thatched structures.

·         Maximum Rainfall Brunt (High-Risk Flooding Zone):

o    The satellite image shows massive moisture feeding in from the Bay of Bengal on the eastern side. As this moisture hits the hills of south Odisha, it triggers orographic enhancement (clouds dumping massive rain as they are forced over mountains).

o    Malkangiri, Koraput, and Kalahandi districts will face catastrophic rainfall. Torrential downpours in the Northwest and Northeast quadrants will funnel into hilly terrains, causing severe landslide risks and flash floods in the Vamsadhara and Nagavali river basins.

 

Summary Map of Maximum Brunt Areas

Phase & Location	Max Wind Brunt (Right Side)	Max Rain/Flood Brunt (Left/Front)	Impact Dynamics
Landfall  Around (Kakinada)	Kakinada, Yanam, Tuni, Visakhapatnam	Konaseema, East/West Godavari, Eluru	Dynamic wind compounding, heavy storm surge, & coastal inundation
Inland Turn (Malkangiri)	Eastern Malkangiri, Koraput, Rayagada, Nabarangpur	Western Malkangiri, Koraput, Kalahandi	Frictional wind decay with mountain-induced rain, flash floods, & landslides

 

Here is the step-by-step specific chronological timeline for quick glance at Cyclone Arnab’s impact on Andhra Pradesh and Odisha:

Chronological Timeline At A Glance

Pre-Landfall Inundation (Kakinada Coast)

·         Timeline: Late Night, October 26 to Early Morning, October 27

·         Storm Status: Interacting closely with the coast as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS), packing sustained winds of 65 knots (approx. 120 km/h) to 90 knots (approx. 165 km/h).

·         What Hits Kakinada: Outer rain bands and the expanding Northeast wind quadrant will hit the Kakinada and Visakhapatnam coasts hours before the core arrives. Expect heavy, driving rain and gale-force winds starting late tonight, alongside escalating sea conditions.

 

Phase 2: Landfall Peak Brunt (Kakinada)

·         Timeline: Mid-Day, Evening, October 27 to Morning Oct 28

·         Storm Status: At or just past its peak intensity as a Severe to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm.

·         What Hits Kakinada: Maximum extreme conditions. The eyewall will cross the coast near Kakinada. Because the storm is moving at 65–110 knots over the adjacent open water just prior, the core 64-knot wind radius (15–25 NM wide) will sweep directly over Yanam, Kakinada, and Tuni. This is the window for peak storm surge, maximum destructive winds, and structural damage along the immediate coastline.

Transition & The Poleward Turn

·         Timeline: October 28 Afternoon

·         Storm Status: Degrading from a Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) down to a Cyclonic Storm (CS) as it drags across the rugged terrain of Andhra Pradesh.

·         What Happens: The forward speed drops, and the system begins its sharp pivot northward. Wind speeds drop from 65 knots down to 40 knots, but the entire mass of tropical moisture begins funneling directly upward toward the Eastern Ghats.

Inland Peak Brunt (Malkangiri)

·         Timeline: Afternoon to Night, October 28

·         Storm Status: Cyclonic Storm (CS) to Deep Depression (DD), with sustained winds hovering between 25 and 40 knots (approx. 45–75 km/h).

·         What Hits Malkangiri: Maximum rainfall and terrain brunt. While Kakinada's wind field begins clearing out, Malkangiri will experience its worst conditions roughly 24 hours after Kakinada's landfall. The wind speeds will be significantly lower than what hit the coast, but the rainfall will be catastrophic due to the storm slowing down over the mountains. Torrential, continuous downpours will peak during this window, presenting severe landslide risks and flash flooding across Malkangiri and Koraput.

Timeline Summary

Location	Peak Danger Window	Primary Hazard	Estimated Wind Intensity
Kakinada (Coast)	Oct 27 5:30 PM IST On wards	Destructive Winds & Storm Surge	65–90 Knots (Very Severe)
Malkangiri (Inland)	Oct 28 Afternoon / Night	Extreme Orographic Rain & Landslides	25–40 Knots (Cyclonic Storm / Depression)

Also Read: EXCLUSIVE| Cyclone Arnab to form past midnight: Which Odisha districts will its 'Muscular Right Arm' pound? Timeline inside