Special Report| Mahanadi Water Dispute: On September 28, Will Odisha’s Long-Running River Row Go the Sone-Kishau Way?

Bhubaneswar: In a significant development that could alter the course of Odisha’s decades-old Mahanadi water dispute, the Central Water Commission (CWC) has submitted a potential water-sharing formula to the Mahanadi Water Disputes Tribunal, based on what sources describes as the “positive approach” of the Chief Ministers of Odisha and Chhattisgarh; the tribunal is scheduled to hear the matter on September 28 at 3:30 PM.

The development assumes significance because the Mahanadi dispute has remained locked in a cycle of competing water data, upstream projects, political differences and litigation. But this time, the Centre’s intervention comes against the backdrop of a series of interstate water agreements in 2026 – including the Sone River Sharing Agreement and Kishau Multipurpose Project Pact – raising a larger question: can a formula that has helped unlock other long-pending interstate water conflicts provide a pathway for Mahanadi too?

Why Has the Mahanadi Dispute Lingered For Decades?

The Mahanadi conflict is not merely a disagreement over a single number of cubic feet of water. At its core is a dispute over how the river’s available water should be measured, how much the upstream state can consume, and what minimum flow Odisha should receive during the lean season.

One of the biggest stumbling blocks has been the existence of conflicting datasets. Odisha and Chhattisgarh have historically relied on different assessments of water availability and consumption, creating a basic problem: before deciding how to share the river, the two sides have had to agree on what the river actually has to share.

The dispute has also been complicated by the use of average annual flow as a reference point. Such averages can be heavily influenced by enormous monsoon flows, whereas Odisha's vulnerability is particularly acute during the non-monsoon period, when downstream availability becomes critical.

Then came litigation. Following the constitution of the Mahanadi Water Disputes Tribunal in 2018, the dispute increasingly acquired a legal and adversarial character, with both sides concentrating on establishing their respective positions rather than finding a mutually workable operational mechanism.

At the same time, upstream irrigation and industrial infrastructure altered the operational dynamics of the basin. The construction of barrages, including Kalma and Amora, became an important part of Odisha's concern over downstream flows.

That combination – data disagreement + lean-season scarcity + upstream infrastructure + political standoff + litigation – helped keep the dispute alive.

2026: Why the Centre’s Mediation Is Suddenly Important

The timing of the CWC's Mahanadi formula is significant because 2026 has seen four major interstate water agreements listed below.

Date

Interstate water agreement/project

States involved

Core issue

June 29, 2026

Yamuna Water Pipeline Pact

Rajasthan & Haryana

Routing Rajasthan’s allocated water through a specialised conveyance system

July 7, 2026

Narmada Award Financial Settlement

MP, Gujarat, Maharashtra & Rajasthan

Financial and rehabilitation-related issues

August 30, 2026

Sone River Sharing Agreement

Bihar & Jharkhand

Long-running water-sharing deadlock linked to the Sone system

September 15, 2026

Kishau Multipurpose Project Pact

Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, UP, Haryana, Rajasthan & Delhi

Unlocking a long-stalled multi-state Tons/Yamuna basin project

The Kishau pact was described by Union Home Minister Amit Shah as the 10th major interstate water dispute resolved under the Union government's cooperative-federalism approach.

The Centre has also pointed to the Yamuna Water Project, Ken-Betwa, Renukaji and Lakhwar agreements as examples of how long-standing disputes can be addressed by shifting attention from purely adversarial litigation towards shared infrastructure, mediated agreements and technical mechanisms.

For Mahanadi, therefore, the important change may not simply be that another meeting is taking place. The bigger change is the emergence of a negotiation architecture in which engineering data, operational rules and political consensus can work alongside the formal tribunal process.

Why Odisha Can See a Sone-Kishau Parallel

The strongest reason for cautious optimism lies in the similarity of the underlying problem.

An analysis of the Mahanadi imbrogilo identifies the Sone River Basin Accord and Kishau Multipurpose Project Pact as comparable models for Mahanadi.

The Sone breakthrough is particularly relevant because it involved Bihar and Jharkhand and a 25-year-old conflict over water sharing associated with making the Indrapuri Dam/Sone Barrage system operational.

That resembles Mahanadi in one crucial respect: the dispute is not simply about ownership of water. It is about how a shared river system can actually be operated when upstream and downstream interests are different.

The emerging Mahanadi formula attempts to address precisely that operational problem.

September 28: The Real Test

The September 28 hearing is therefore more than another date on the tribunal calendar.

The CWC has already placed its potential formula before the tribunal, and the supplied report says the next stage will involve examining the Chief Ministers’ consensus and the technical framework submitted by the Commission.

But one distinction remains crucial: submission of a formula is not the same as final settlement.

The September 28 proceedings will show whether the technical framework can command sufficient agreement from both sides and whether the tribunal can translate that consensus into a legally enforceable arrangement.

That is why the Mahanadi story has entered a potentially different phase.

For years, the central question was how much water Odisha would receive and how much Chhattisgarh could use. The new approach attempts to change the question itself: what measurable river conditions should trigger how much upstream use and how much downstream release?

If the Sone and Kishau experiences demonstrate anything, it is that a decades-old interstate water conflict can move when the dispute is converted from a purely political and legal confrontation into a shared engineering and operational problem.

For Mahanadi, September 28 will indicate whether that formula has finally reached the point where a long-running dispute can move from competing claims towards an implementable settlement.
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