Bhubaneswar, May 7: Weather experts have indicated the possibility of a low-pressure system forming over the Bay of Bengal by the second weekend of May, raising concerns about potential cyclonic activity.

Surendranath Pasupalak, a noted meteorologist, highlighted subtle but significant changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions compared to Wednesday, pointing to a developing trend.

Key Atmospheric Shifts

The Vertical Wind Shear (VWS), which was around 20 knots until Wednesday, has shown signs of relaxation, now hovering between 15-20 knots. This reduction creates favourable conditions for cyclone formation.
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Meanwhile, Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) remain steady at around 31°C in the southern Bay of Bengal, storing ample ocean heat content to fuel storm development.

In addition, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has intensified in Phase 3, currently active over the Indian Ocean. This is enhancing atmospheric instability over the Bay, encouraging cloud formation and storm activity.

Model Predictions

The GFS (American Model) strongly suggests the formation of a powerful cyclone between May 11-13, with the system likely to consolidate and move northwest.

The ECMWF (European Model), which earlier predicted only rainfall, has now aligned with GFS, indicating the emergence of a Low Pressure Area (LPA). Both models now point toward the development of a significant weather system.

Cyclonic Circulation and LPA

Forecasts show a cyclonic circulation forming over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining Andaman Sea between May 11 and 13. This system is expected to evolve into a clear LPA by May 14-15, potentially intensifying further depending on atmospheric conditions.

The next 24-48 hours are crucial. The intensity of the system will depend on VWS trends and the amplitude of MJO.

By May 10, the situation is expected to become clearer, allowing meteorologists to assess the cyclone’s strength and trajectory more accurately.