Argus News - IMD Forecasts Below-Normal Monsoon in 2026

New Delhi, Apr 13: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the upcoming southwest monsoon season, raising concerns for agriculture and water management across the country.

IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra announced that rainfall during June to September is expected to be around 92% of the long-period average, placing it in the “below normal” category.

According to the IMD, monsoon rainfall this year is likely to range between 87% and 97% of the average. Dr Mohapatra advised states and farmers to plan accordingly, given the possibility of reduced rainfall.

Also read: Odisha Reels under Scorching Heat asTitlagarh Records 41.5°C

However, he clarified that Odisha may not face severe impacts. Southern Odisha is expected to receive near-normal rainfall, while northern Odisha could experience slightly below-normal precipitation.

The El Nino phenomenon, which often suppresses monsoon rains, is currently in a neutral phase and will not affect rainfall until June. From July onwards, El Nino’s influence may reduce rainfall, though conditions in August and September could offset this decline.

Dr Mohapatra also highlighted that snowfall levels in Europe between January and March were lower than usual. Historically, reduced snowfall in Europe has been linked to stronger monsoon rains in India, offering a positive factor amid concerns.

He noted that more precise state-level forecasts will be available in May, once additional data is analysed. For now, IMD has ruled out any cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal over the next 15 days.

Typically, May witnesses at least one cyclone in the region, but such events can only be predicted about two weeks in advance.

Meanwhile, Odisha is expected to face intense heat over the next seven days, with rising temperatures and possible heatwaves. Dr Mohapatra urged residents to remain cautious, stay hydrated, and take protective measures against extreme heat. Following this spell, the state may experience pre-monsoon showers, known locally as Kalbaishakhi.

Past El Nino years have shown significant monsoon deficits: 95% rainfall in 2023, 81.7% in 2009, and 87.3% in 2015.