New Delhi, May 29: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised its monsoon forecast downward, stating that the country is likely to receive only 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, lower than the 92 per cent projection issued earlier in April.

The IMD also warned that several parts of the country, including Odisha, are likely to witness above-normal heatwave days during June.

Presenting the latest long-range forecast during a press briefing, the weather department said weak El Nino conditions are expected to develop in June and may strengthen during the second half of the monsoon season, potentially affecting rainfall distribution across India.

“The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 90 per cent of the Long Period Average with a model error of plus or minus four per cent, indicating below-normal rainfall is most likely,” the IMD stated.

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Region-wise projections indicate that northeast India may receive near-normal rainfall, while northwest India, central India and south peninsular regions are expected to witness below-normal monsoon rainfall this year.

The IMD further stated that above-normal heatwave days are likely during June over parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated areas of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

The revised forecast marks a further downgrade from IMD’s first-stage monsoon outlook released in April, when the department had predicted rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average with a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent.

The Long Period Average rainfall for the monsoon season over the country between 1971 and 2020 stands at 87 centimetres.

The latest projection raises concerns for India’s agriculture sector and rural economy, both heavily dependent on monsoon rainfall. According to Agriculture Ministry data, nearly 51 per cent of India’s cultivated land is rain-fed and contributes around 40 per cent of total agricultural production.

Experts warn that below-normal rainfall could affect crop yields, reduce rural consumption and contribute to rising food inflation at a time when global crude oil prices and fertiliser costs are already under pressure due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.

India had last recorded below-normal monsoon rainfall in 2023, another El Nino year, when seasonal rainfall stood at 94 per cent of the Long Period Average.