EXCLUSIVE| Odisha Entry Point Confirmed: Deep Depression May Track Over Paralakhemundi; Next 48 Hours Critical as CWC Forecasts Jalka & Severe Vamsadhara Floods

Bhubaneswar: Odisha is staring at a rapidly escalating flood threat as the Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal is set to cross the North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha Coast close to Kalingapatnam tonight, before moving northwestwards deep into southern and western Odisha.

The system, which intensified into a Deep Depression over the westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal, is forecast to cross the coast between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, close to Kalingapatnam, by the night of September 23. IMD's latest bulletin confirms the west-northwestward movement and the expected landfall window.

What makes the situation more serious for Odisha is not merely the rainfall during landfall. The system is expected to travel inland across the Gajapati-Rayagada-Kalahandi belt, dumping heavy rain over already vulnerable catchments and sending a sharp pulse of runoff into rivers.

And the Central Water Commission's flood forecast points to a 24-48-hour escalation window, with the most critical phase expected from September 24 afternoon through September 25 night.

Landfall tonight: Kalingapatnam first, Odisha next

The Deep Depression is expected to cross near Kalingapatnam in Andhra Pradesh late Wednesday, September 23, before entering the southern Odisha region.

The projected inland trajectory takes the system across the Ganjam–Gajapati sector, with the circulation then moving northwestwards towards Paralakhemundi, Rayagada, Kalahandi and subsequently towards Nabarangpur, Bolangir and Nuapada, before weakening further towards Chhattisgarh.

IMD's latest official position places the system over the westcentral/adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal and maintains the forecast of a land crossing close to Kalingapatnam by tonight.

The track and impact window

Time	Expected system position	Wind scenario	Main Odisha areas under impact
Sept 23 evening-night	Landfall near Kalingapatnam	50-60 kmph, gusting up to 70 kmph	Ganjam, Gajapati, coastal Andhra adjoining Odisha
Sept 24 morning	Inland across Gajapati–Rayagada/Koraput belt	45-55 kmph, gusting up to 65 kmph	Paralakhemundi, Rayagada, Koraput
Sept 24 evening-night	Weakening while moving northwest	40-50 kmph, gusting up to 60 kmph	Nabarangpur, Kalahandi, Bolangir
Sept 25	Depression/remnant system approaching Chhattisgarh	30-45 kmph, gradually weakening	Nuapada, Bargarh and adjoining western Odisha

The strongest winds are expected close to the circulation during and immediately after landfall, with the system weakening progressively as it moves over land and encounters the Eastern Ghats.

Rainfall will move from South Odisha to the western districts

The rainfall pattern is expected to shift westward with the system.

During the night of September 23 through September 24, Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada and Koraput could receive 110–200 mm, with isolated pockets potentially exceeding 250 mm under the strongest convective bands.

The next major rainfall zone is expected to develop across Kalahandi, Nabarangpur, Bolangir and Nuapada, where 70–150 mm is possible during September 24-25.

The danger is that the rain may not appear as one uninterrupted deluge everywhere. The system's asymmetric and sheared structure means districts can experience shorter but extremely intense convective spells, separated by comparatively quieter periods.

CWC flood forecast: rivers begin responding within hours

The more consequential development is now downstream.

According to the flood forecast inputs, river levels are expected to rise rapidly as the Deep Depression's rainfall enters the catchments.

Three monitoring locations stand out:

• Jalka at Mathani, Balasore
• Vamsadhara at Kashinagar, Gajapati
• Vamsadhara at Gunupur, Rayagada
  
  

For reference, CWC's flood-monitoring framework lists 6.00 m as the warning level and 6.50 m as the danger level at Jalka-Mathani. For Vamsadhara, the corresponding levels are 54.10/54.60 m at Kashinagar and 83.00/84.00 m at Gunupur.

The critical river timeline

Time	River / location	Forecast development	Flood significance
Sept 23	Jalka–Mathani	River approaches warning level	Initial catchment response
Sept 24, 6–9 AM	Jalka–Mathani	Crosses 6.50 m danger level	Flooding risk begins intensifying
Sept 24, 9 AM–12 PM	Vamsadhara–Kashinagar	Crosses 54.10 m warning, then 54.60 m danger	Rapid escalation in Gajapati
Sept 24 evening-night	Vamsadhara–Gunupur	Crosses 83.00 m warning level	River stress spreads into Rayagada
Sept 25 early hours	Jalka–Mathani	Forecast to cross 7.31 m HFL	Exceptional flood response
Sept 25, 3–9 AM	Jalka–Mathani	Peak around 8.0 m	Extreme inundation window
Sept 25, around 6 AM	Vamsadhara–Gunupur	Crosses 84.00 m danger level	Major flood threat
Sept 25 afternoon	Vamsadhara–Kashinagar	Peak around 57.7 m	About 3.1 m above danger level
Sept 25 afternoon	Vamsadhara–Gunupur	Peak around 85.4 m	Significant exceedance of danger level
Sept 26	Vamsadhara	Rapid recession expected	Flood pressure starts easing
Sept 26 night	Jalka–Mathani	Falls below danger level	Prolonged flood phase begins to recede

September 24–25: Odisha's most critical 48 hours

The CWC forecast therefore changes the nature of the weather threat.

September 23 is primarily the landfall and rainfall onset phase. September 24 becomes the river-rise phase. September 25 emerges as the peak flood-risk day.

In southern Odisha, the immediate concern will be intense runoff from Gajapati and Rayagada, particularly around the Vamsadhara basin.

Kashinagar and Gunupur become particularly important because the forecast river levels move substantially beyond their respective danger marks.

The projected 57.7-metre peak at Kashinagar, against a danger level of 54.6 metres, would put the river roughly 3.1 metres above the danger threshold.

At Gunupur, the forecast peak of about 85.4 metres would be around 1.4 metres above the 84-metre danger level.

The consequence is not limited to the immediate riverbank. Rising rivers can back up tributaries and drainage channels, inundate low-lying settlements, disrupt roads and bridges and isolate pockets where access becomes difficult.

Cities and towns likely to see the weather transition

The immediate southern corridor includes Kalingapatnam (AP), Paralakhemundi, Rayagada, Gunupur and Kashinagar.

The flood threat will outlive the weather system

This is perhaps the most important distinction in the current forecast.

The Deep Depression is expected to weaken after moving inland. But rivers do not respond and recede at the same speed as the atmospheric system.

Even after rainfall starts declining on September 25, runoff from upstream catchments can continue feeding the rivers.

That is why the flood forecast extends into September 26, with Vamsadhara expected to begin falling earlier while Jalka could remain above its danger level for more than 36 hours.

The weather system may therefore be weakening by the time the flood threat reaches its most consequential phase.

The bottom line

Tonight's landfall near Kalingapatnam triggers the bigger Odisha risk as the system moves inland.

The sequence projected by the rainfall and flood forecasts is stark: heavy rain over South Odisha on September 23–24, rapid river response on September 24, peak flood conditions on September 25 and gradual recession only on September 26.

For Gajapati and Rayagada, the Vamsadhara is the immediate concern. For Balasore, the Jalka forecast points to a later but potentially severe river response.

The next 48 hours will therefore determine whether the Deep Depression remains primarily a heavy-rain event or develops into a broader river-flood episode across multiple Odisha districts.

Also Read: EXCLUSIVE| Deep Depression’s Northward Curve Raises Flood Alarm In Odisha: Western Dists Face Flash-Flood Risk, Hirakud Braces For 5.47-Lakh-Cusec Inflow Surge