Bhubaneswar, May 30: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its monsoon forecast for June to September, predicting varied rainfall patterns across the country.

While northern and northeastern India are expected to receive near-normal rainfall ranging between 94% and 106% of the long-period average, central and southern peninsular regions may see below-normal rainfall at less than 94%. Northwestern India is projected to receive even lower rainfall, below 92% of the long-term average.

Odisha, which falls within the core monsoon zone, is also likely to experience below-normal rainfall this season.

Also read: WMO Shocker for Odisha: State warmer by 0.5 deg C in last 5 years, coming 10 years will be Worse

IMD officials have cautioned that El Niño conditions will significantly influence the monsoon. The probability of El Niño impact is estimated at 92%. While the phenomenon is expected to remain weak in June, it may strengthen to moderate levels in July and August, and become stronger by September.

Historically, El Niño’s effects are more pronounced in the latter half of the monsoon, particularly in August and September.

Currently, the southwest monsoon has advanced into parts of the southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, southeast and east-central Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and west-central Bay of Bengal.

IMD expects further progress into adjoining areas within the next two to three days. However, experts warn that El Niño could reduce rainfall and push temperatures above normal in several regions, including Odisha.

Dip in Temperatures

Odisha has witnessed a dip in temperatures, though heat and humidity persist. Western Odisha continues to reel under high temperatures, with limited relief expected.

Kalbaisakhi (Nor’wester) activity is likely to bring thunderstorms and rainfall in several districts.

On Friday, IMD issued an orange warning for Sundargarh, Jharsuguda, and Sambalpur, forecasting thunderstorms with wind speeds of 50-60 kmph. Coastal and southern Odisha are also expected to receive rainfall accompanied by lightning.

Balangir recorded the highest temperature at 43.1°C on Friday, followed by Titilagarh at 43°C, Sambalpur at 42.2°C, Bhawanipatna and Nuapada at 41.8°C, Boudh at 41.5°C, and Paralakhemundi at 41.2°C.

Most coastal, northern, and southern districts reported temperatures between 36°C and 37°C. IMD predicts thunderstorms and rainfall across coastal, interior, and southern Odisha over the next few days, with widespread showers likely until June 4.