Bhubaneswar, Nov 5: When former Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik announced his decision to hit the campaign trail in Nuapada, it was more than just a show of support for his party’s candidate — it was a carefully calculated gamble to reclaim lost political ground and test his post-defeat relevance. After remaining largely aloof since the Biju Janata Dal’s (BJD) unexpected fall from power in 2024, Patnaik’s re-entry into the field marks a critical inflection point for both the leader and his party.

For over two decades, Patnaik’s political persona thrived on unassailable popularity, a spotless image, and the aura of quiet efficiency. But the 2024 Assembly debacle, which ended BJD’s 24-year rule, changed the equation. The party’s morale dipped, cadres dispersed, and the BJP—led by Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi—rapidly consolidated control over the state’s administrative and welfare machinery. In this new landscape, Patnaik’s decision to personally campaign in a difficult seat like Nuapada stands out as a bold, if risky, manoeuvre.

Nuapada represents more than an electoral contest — it’s a symbolic battleground where Patnaik seeks to prove that the BJD’s defeat was not the end of his political story. By choosing to campaign in person, Patnaik signals two messages: first, that he remains the face and force of the BJD; and second, that he is willing to take ownership of the party’s revival.

However, this symbolism comes with risk. The party’s choice of Snehangini Chhuria, a former MLA from Attabira in neighbouring Bargarh district, has drawn criticism even from within the BJD. As an outsider to Nuapada, she lacks the local roots that often determine electoral fortunes in a constituency dominated by tribal and backward-class voters. Her candidacy was further complicated by Jay Dholakia’s defection to the BJP, depriving the BJD of both a local face and the emotional resonance of a sympathy vote following the death of sitting MLA Rajendra Dholakia.

The political terrain in Nuapada today is vastly different from the BJD’s glory years. The BJP has successfully re-engineered Patnaik’s welfare narrative — targeting the same social segments that once formed the backbone of the BJD’s support. The Subhadra Yojana has reclaimed the women’s vote that Patnaik once held through Mission Shakti and Mamata. Farmers, once loyal beneficiaries of KALIA, now respond positively to the BJP’s direct cash incentives and procurement bonuses. Even senior citizens, a demographic long loyal to Patnaik’s humane governance model, are tilting toward the ruling party after the tripling of old-age pensions.

Meanwhile, tribal consolidation under the leadership of Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi, Odisha’s first tribal CM, has added a potent emotional layer to the BJP’s campaign in Nuapada, which has over one lakh tribal voters. The Congress, too, has fielded Ghasiram Majhi, a well-known tribal leader, making the contest more fragmented and further complicating the BJD’s arithmetic.

 In this context, Patnaik’s decision to lead the campaign personally is indeed a political gamble. Victory in Nuapada could reignite party morale and re-establish him as the indispensable figure in Odisha’s political spectrum. It would allow the BJD to claim that the 2024 defeat was a temporary aberration, not a terminal decline.

But a loss could be far costlier. It would reinforce perceptions that Patnaik’s political magic has faded and that the BJD, without power and patronage, can no longer mobilize its traditional vote base. Worse, it might embolden dissenters within the party and accelerate the drift of regional leaders toward the BJP.

Ultimately, the Nuapada bypoll is less about Snehangini Chhuria’s candidature and more about Naveen Patnaik’s enduring appeal. The rallies he plans in Komna and Khariar Road are not just campaign events; they are public referendums on whether Odisha’s longest-serving Chief Minister can still command loyalty across caste, region, and identity.

If Patnaik succeeds, the BJD could find the momentum it desperately needs to rebuild. If he fails, the verdict will not just be electoral — it will be existential.

In that sense, yes — Naveen Patnaik is taking a political gamble in Nuapada. But it’s a gamble he can’t afford not to take.