Mahanadi Flood: Odisha Braces for 5-Foot Inundation in Bhubaneswar, Jagatsinghpur & Puri Pockets Sunday-Monday| Exclusive

Bhubaneswar: Odisha's flood situation is entering a critical downstream phase, with authorities shifting focus from upstream river levels to inundation across the Mahanadi delta.

While most major rivers are either stable or receding, the controlled release from Hirakud Dam is now pushing an enormous volume of water through the deltaic channels towards coastal districts.

Central Water Commission’s (CWC) Flood Early Warning System indicate that several low-lying pockets along the Daya, Bhargavi and lower Mahanadi distributaries could witness water depths exceeding 1.5 metres between Sunday evening and Monday, necessitating close monitoring and possible evacuation of vulnerable habitations.

Flood Scenario Latest

The Odisha Department of Water Resources (DoWR) said 6.49 lakh cusecs of water was flowing past Mundali at noon on Saturday after release from Hirakud's 22 open gates. Hirakud reservoir itself remains comfortable at 625.45 ft (81.6% live storage), with inflow of 3.73 lakh cusecs and outflow of 3.86 lakh cusecs, indicating reservoir managers are maintaining a controlled release.

The immediate hydrological picture remains mixed across Odisha. At Naraj, the Mahanadi is falling at 26.11 metres, though still above the warning level. The Baitarani at Akhuapada is 17.64 metres, marginally below the warning mark of 17.83 metres and also falling.

Jalaka, however, remains slightly above its warning level at 6.04 metres, warranting continued vigilance in Balasore district.

Adding to the relief, the IMD has forecast only light to moderate rainfall over most river basins during the next three days, with lower Mahanadi, lower Brahmani and Baitarani basins expected to receive merely 0.1-10 mm rainfall, suggesting fresh rainfall is unlikely to significantly aggravate the ongoing flood wave in coastal Odisha.

Sunday-Monday Flood Outlook: Basin-wise Impact

Hydrologically, Odisha is no longer facing an upstream flood build-up but a downstream flood propagation event, where released reservoir water is gradually spreading across the flat coastal delta.

Mahanadi Delta (Highest Concern)

The greatest risk lies in the lower Mahanadi basin, where the flood crest moving past Mundali is expected to spread into the Kathajodi, Kuakhai, Daya, Bhargavi, Devi and Kushabhadra systems.

Sunday (August 2):

• Moderate inundation (0.5-1.5 m) likely across floodplains of Cuttack, Khordha, Puri and Jagatsinghpur districts.
• Rural roads, agricultural fields and low-lying villages adjoining distributary channels are likely to remain submerged.

Sunday Night to Monday (August 3):
CWC FES maps indicate transition into critical inundation (above 1.5 metres) in selected low-lying pockets as water spreads and stagnates across the coastal delta.

Baitarani Basin

Although presently receding, forecast hydrographs indicate the Baitarani could witness another gradual rise during the coming days. For Sunday and Monday, localized flooding may continue in low-lying villages near Akhuapada, but no widespread worsening is indicated immediately.

Jalaka Basin

The Jalaka river is likely to hover close to the warning level, resulting in prolonged waterlogging rather than sudden flash flooding.

Brahmani Basin

Rengali continues controlled releases while downstream Brahmani gauges remain comfortably below warning levels. No major flood expansion is anticipated over Sunday and Monday.

Mahanadi Delta Enters Critical Phase: 1.5-Metre (5 Ft) Flooding Likely

The principal concern has now shifted to the Mahanadi delta, where flood modelling indicates deep inundation exceeding 1.5 metres or over 5 foot, as the enormous discharge released from Hirakud slows over the extremely flat coastal terrain.

Sunday Evening/Night

The first areas expected to enter the critical inundation zone are those surrounding the Daya river system, particularly near the Daya Road Bridge.

The high-risk pockets include:

• Balakati
• Sukoarei
• Itipur
• Dilipur
• Barabadi
• Sahasapur
• Pariapupur
• Honola

Flood depth simulations show these villages lying within thehigh inundation zone, representing water depth above 1.5 metres or around 5 ft, particularly on both banks of the Daya river.

Monday Morning

By Monday, the flood wave is expected to move further downstream, expanding deep inundation into the lower coastal plains.

The most vulnerable regions include:

• Large parts of Jagatsinghpur district, particularly rural blocks adjoining the Mahanadi distributaries.
• Low-lying villages east of Nimapara and Balanga in Puri district.
• Deltaic pockets adjoining Tarapur and downstream distributary channels leading towards the Bay of Bengal.

The inundation maps suggest that while river embankments around Cuttack are largely expected to contain the main flow, floodwaters will increasingly spread across adjoining floodplains and village settlements as they enter the coastal delta.

Unlike a flash flood driven by intense rainfall, this is a reservoir-driven downstream flood, where sustained high discharge from Hirakud gradually fills distributary channels before spilling into adjoining lowlands.

Consequently, even though upstream rivers are showing a falling trend and rainfall forecasts remain modest, water depth in vulnerable delta villages is expected to peak during Sunday night and Monday, making this the most critical phase of Odisha's current flood situation.

Key Takeaway: The immediate flood threat is no longer from rising rivers upstream but from deepening inundation downstream, with parts of the Daya-Bhargavi-Mahanadi delta likely to witness water depths exceeding 1.5 metres as the controlled flood wave continues its journey towards the sea. The combination of sustained discharge through Mundali and the naturally low gradient of the coastal delta is expected to keep several villages under water well into Monday. 

Also Read: Flood Fury / Odisha Flood Alert: More Hirakud Gates Likely to Open; Monday's High Tide Could Slow Floodwater Drainage in Coastal Delta/Exclusive