Bhubaneswar, Nov 22: A low-pressure area has developed over the southern Andaman Sea and adjoining Malacca Strait, sparking concerns of a possible cyclone that could impact Odisha in late November. Meteorological models differ in their predictions, but all point towards significant system development in the Bay of Bengal over the coming days.

Global Models Predict Cyclone Formation

According to the American weather model GFS, the system is expected to intensify into a depression within 24 hours and may develop into a cyclonic storm between November 25 and 26. The model further suggests landfall along the Odisha coast around December 2. Similarly, the European ECMWF model forecasts cyclone formation over the south-central Bay of Bengal between November 25 and 26, crossing near Odisha around December 1–2.

Private forecaster Skymet has also projected the system’s movement towards the Tamil Nadu–Andhra–Odisha coastline. Weather expert Biswajit Sahu noted another cyclonic circulation remains active near the Malacca region and Sri Lankan coast, adding complexity to the forecast.

IMD’s Official Position

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in a special bulletin, said the formation of the low-pressure area and said it is likely to intensify into a depression by November 24. The system is expected to move west-northwestwards and may strengthen further over the southwest Bay of Bengal in the subsequent 48 hours. However, IMD scientists remain cautious, stating it is too early to confirm cyclone formation.

Manorama Mohanty, Director of the Meteorological Centre in Bhubaneswar, emphasized that the system is currently far from the Odisha coast, and dry weather is expected across most parts of the state for the next week.

Advisory for Farmers

Authorities have advised farmers to remain alert and harvest mature paddy crops promptly to avoid potential losses from rainfall or strong winds later in the season. While the Agriculture Department has yet to issue an official advisory, precautionary measures are being encouraged at the local level.

Meteorologist Sarat Chandra Sahu added that a clearer picture of the cyclone’s track and landfall will emerge after November 25–26. Historical records suggest that cyclones forming in the Bay of Bengal after mid-November rarely have a significant impact on Odisha.