Bhubaneswar: The AIADMK has survived splits before—1987 (Janaki vs. Jayalalithaa), 2017 (OPS vs. EPS), and 2022 (The Expulsion of OPS). But the May 2026 split is driven by a new existential threat: the fear of irrelevance.

​The Key Political Drivers:

​The TVK Gravity Well: The rise of actor Vijay’s TVK has shattered traditional political math. Rebel leaders Velumani and Shanmugam recognize that the TVK lacks a majority. By breaking away from EPS, they can offer their 32+ MLAs to the TVK, ensuring the AIADMK (rebel faction) stays in the corridors of power rather than rotting on the opposition benches.

​Five More Years of "Nothing": Having been out of power since 2021, the grassroots workers are disheartened. Another five years without the patronage that comes with government roles would likely lead to a total collapse of the party’s local machinery.

​The "Shadow" of DMK: The rebels have accused the EPS camp of being "soft" or open to a collaboration with the DMK. By taking a hard "Anti-DMK" stance and aligning with the TVK, the rebels claim they are the true protectors of the Amma party’s foundation.

​Lack of a "Crowd-Puller": Post-Jayalalithaa, the party has lacked a singular, charismatic face. The rebels believe that sticking with EPS is a "dead end," and only a fresh alignment can save the party from being decimated by the DMK-TVK rivalry.