Pakistan faces critical artillery shortage, can sustain war for just four days

New Delhi, May 3: Pakistan’s military readiness has come under severe scrutiny, with intelligence sources revealing that the country can sustain high-intensity combat operations for no more than four days.

The alarming assessment stems from a critical shortage of artillery ammunition -- an outcome of Pakistan’s arms exports to Ukraine and Israel.

According to sources, Pakistan's decision to meet international arms demands, while financially lucrative, has significantly eroded its warfighting capabilities. The export of vital munitions has left key weapon systems without sufficient ammunition, reducing them to little more than sitting ducks in the face of a full-scale conflict.

Highly placed sources told IANS that in the shadow of global conflicts, Pakistan’s military establishment has been quietly navigating treacherous waters, balancing economic desperation against strategic survival. The nation’s decision to export vast quantities of ammunition to Ukraine and Israel has not only strained its diplomatic neutrality but also gutted its own warfighting capabilities, leaving its armed forces critically underprepared for sustained combat.

The crisis traces back to 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war triggered a global demand for munitions. Facing a worsening economic crisis marked by debt and food insecurity, Pakistan seized the opportunity. The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF) in Wah Cantt became a covert supplier to Ukraine, exporting large volumes of artillery shells, rockets, and small arms ammunition.

Between February and March 2023 alone, Pakistan reportedly shipped 42,000 122mm BM-21 rockets, 60,000 155mm howitzer shells, and another 130,000 122mm rockets -- earning 364 million dollars. About 80 per cent of these proceeds were allegedly funneled directly to the Army's General Headquarters in Rawalpindi.

By FY 2022-23, Pakistan's arms exports surged to 415 million dollars -- a staggering 3,000 per cent increase from the previous year's 13 million dollars. But the windfall came at a steep price -- a rapid depletion of domestic stockpiles essential for sustaining the 600,000-strong army.

Key platforms such as the M109 howitzers and BM-21 rocket systems have been left under-equipped, with their primary munitions diverted. Pakistan’s new SH-15 Mounted Gun Systems (MGS), procured under the assumption that ammunition would be indigenously produced, now stand idle due to POF's diverted production lines.

Without ammunition, these guns are little more than showpieces, a senior intelligence source told IANS. This is particularly true for the SH-15, which was recently showcased as part of a military deception exercise. In reality, they are without combat-ready ammunition.

The operational impact is dire. Analysts estimate that Pakistan’s reserves can now support only 96 hours -- or four days -- of sustained, high-intensity warfare. The strategic imbalance is compounded by India’s rising defence capabilities; New Delhi’s arms imports have surged 61 per cent between 2015-19 and 2020-24.

Simultaneously, Pakistan’s economic woes have deepened. Inflation is rampant, foreign exchange reserves are dwindling, and debt continues to mount. These fiscal constraints have forced the military to curtail rations, suspend exercises, and cancel war games due to fuel shortages.

Former Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa himself admitted that Pakistan lacks both the ammunition and economic capacity to engage in a prolonged conflict with India.

The depletion of war reserves has deeply alarmed Pakistan’s military leadership. Intelligence suggests that the issue was a key topic during the Special Corps Commanders Conference held on May 2, 2025. Though emergency ammunition depots have been established near the India-Pakistan border, their utility is questionable under the current crisis.

The irony is stark -- while Pakistan’s military elite profited from arms exports, the country’s ability to wage or deter conventional war -- especially against India -- has been severely compromised. Four days of combat readiness is not just a number; it marks a grave vulnerability for a nation that has long prided itself on military resilience.

--IANS

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