The party romped to victory in both states and formed the governments there recently.
The Matrize Survey has come up with some insights into what led to the BJP's significant triumph in these states, despite the party's relatively lower performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The survey has highlighted several factors, including the influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Congress-led Opposition’s failure to pose any challenge to the BJP effectively.
The agency has also spotlighted shifts in voter sentiment between the two elections.
The Congress' bid to capitalise on the narrative of ‘constitutional changes’, also failed to make any impact in the Assembly elections.
The survey was carried out between November 25, 2024 and December 14, 2024 with a sample size of 76,830 in Maharashtra and 53,647 in Haryana.
Key findings from the Matrize Survey
1. Enduring popularity of PM Modi
Despite the BJP winning only 240 seats in the Lok Sabha elections this year, PM Modi continued to enjoy massive popularity among voters in both Maharashtra and Haryana, says the survey. His image as a strong and influential leader remained intact. This is a very important finding, as the survey reveals that voters in both states maintained an unwavering trust in PM Modi, which played a pivotal role in the Assembly election outcomes. Around 55 per cent of voters surveyed in Maharashtra found a jump in PM Modi’s popularity. Similarly, 53 per cent of Haryana voters surveyed saw growth in PM Modi’s charisma.
2. Jolt to Congress' narrative on the Constitution
One of the most significant factors identified in the Matrize Survey was the setback to the Congress' narrative which its leader Rahul Gandhi spun during the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress had built a narrative that the Modi government intended to change the Constitution. This claim seemed to have garnered some traction initially during the parliamentary elections. However, it failed to create any impact during the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana. In both states, the Congress’ attempts to push issues such as constitutional changes, farm laws and wrestlers’ ‘problems’ were largely ineffective. Voters did not view these issues as significant during the Assembly elections, contributing to a shift in support towards the BJP.
3. Voter perception of Congress leadership
Another important finding of the survey is major lack of trust in Congress MP Rahul Gandhi, who was seen as the face of the Opposition, in Maharashtra and Haryana. His failure to present a credible alternative to PM Modi also led to the poor show by the Opposition. Voters expressed doubts about the Congress’ leadership, with Rahul Gandhi being perceived as disconnected from ground realities, especially in comparison to PM Modi’s strong, decisive image. This factor played a significant role in BJP's commanding victory in these states.
4. Shift in voter sentiment between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections
This is also suggested that many voters in Maharashtra and Haryana, who made the mistake of not voting for the BJP during the Lok Sabha elections, corrected their decision in the Assembly polls. A key reason behind this shift was the growing confidence in PM Modi’s leadership and the central government’s actions, which voters felt contributed positively to their lives. The Opposition's inability to offer a coherent and convincing alternative led to a clear preference for the BJP in the state elections.
5. BJP's strategic messaging and leadership
The Matrize Survey also highlighted the powerful impact of BJP’s messaging during the Assembly elections. The slogan “Ek Hain to Safe Hain (When united, we are safe)” found approval of voters, especially in Maharashtra and Haryana. This narrative emphasised stability, national security, and economic growth under PM Modi’s leadership, positioning BJP as the safer choice.
On the other hand, the Congress’ divisive rhetoric and internal leadership struggles only served to alienate voters. The failure to challenge BJP’s narrative effectively was evident, especially given the public's disenchantment with the Congress' internal factionalism.
6. Local leadership and organisational factors
In Haryana, the leadership change from Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar to a new set of faces also contributed to the BJP’s success. The survey found that the switch in leadership helped BJP regain trust, with 44 per cent of respondents acknowledging that the leadership change had a significant positive impact. Moreover, the presence of strong local BJP leaders and a well-organised campaign helped the party build a solid base, further ensuring its victory.
7. The role of government schemes and local support,
The BJP’s focus on local issues and welfare schemes also played a crucial role in obtaining voter support. In both states, the BJP government’s initiatives, particularly in the fields of agriculture, infrastructure, and rural development, had a positive effect. These schemes impressed the voters, who felt they had benefited from government policies.
With all these details in view, the Matrize Survey has given a clear picture of why BJP won the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Haryana.
Several interlinked factors contributed to this triumph: The enduring popularity of PM Modi and the continued trust in his leadership, a significant setback to the Opposition's narrative, particularly the Congress' attempt to capitalise on constitutional changes, which failed to make any impact in the Assembly elections, voter correction of their previous Lok Sabha mistake, especially in light of the BJP’s successful governance and message of stability, and the BJP’s effective use of leadership changes, messaging, and welfare schemes to consolidate support.
--IANS
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