(IANS)
India is faced with a very tricky situation. Despite the Afghan government's appeals to India to immediately send fighter jets and gunship helicopters India remains hesitant, and not without reason.
New Delhi, July 16: The speedy advance of the Taliban from northern Afghanistan to Kabul in the eastern section of the country could not have been achieved without the active support of the Pakistani Army. This has been confirmed by none other than the Afghan First Vice President Amrullah Saleh. The question is whether the people of Afghanistan, India and neighbouring countries will allow Taliban to capture Kabul?
India is faced with a very tricky situation. Despite the Afghan government's appeals to India to immediately send fighter jets and gunship helicopters India remains hesitant, and not without reason.
India fears that at this stage in the war in Afghanistan between the Taliban and the government of President Ashraf Ghani if she openly takes sides with the later then Indian interests in Afghanistan will become the target of Taliban violence and destruction. Hence, the India's backdoor channel talks with the Taliban have been reportedly taking place.
If one takes a closer look at the chain of events of the past few months it becomes even clearer that Pakistan has been deceiving India and the wider world when it comes to her war-policy regarding Afghanistan.
The ceasefire between India and Pakistan that came into force after the DG MOs meeting of respective countries took place on February 25, uncannily, coincides with the beginning of the second round of talks between Afghan and Taliban negotiators in Doha on January 9 which took place in the back drop of former US President Donald Trump's announcement that al Afghan troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan by May 1.
Then came the bombshell announcement by US President Joe Biden that the troops will be completely withdrawn from Afghanistan by September 11. Between May and June Pakistan has been acting as Taliban's Foreign Affairs Ministry trying to build a soft image of Taliban.
Pakistani federal ministers now publically claim that the Taliban might wear baggy dresses but they have intelligent brains (Shah Mahmood Qureshi's statement) and that the current
Taliban leadership is a moderate one (statement of Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid Ahmed) compared to the Taliban of 1996 when they publicly displayed the bodies of the slain Afghan president Najeeb Ulla and his brother.
Most notably Imran Khan refused to allow US airspace to attack Taliban if they become a challenge for Ghani.
In June, Pakistan began to send drones to confuse as a warning to India of Pakistan army's preparedness in case India thought that all was hunky dory. The purpose was to keep India engaged on the LoC and keep her busy deciphering the purpose of drone attacks. Meanwhile Pakistani generals began to redeploy its troops to northern parts of the country.
On Friday, according the Saleh, Pakistan is guiding the Taliban advancing troops from anti-terrorist-cells based in Peshawar and Quetta. And the Ghani government is in panic. The defense of Kabul has now become a top priority. Yet a comprehensive strategy to win the war against Pakistan sponsored Taliban seems to be found nowhere.
Under the current circumstances the only way to secure a possible victory for the Afghan people and the government in Kabul would be to transform the patchy resistance offered to the Taliban by armed peoples militias into a full-fledged civil war. Arming every Afghan citizen to fight the medieval Islamic jihadi evil could lead to the final triumph of good over evil.
Secondly, given the evidence of Pakistan's involvement in providing logistic and strategic support to the Taliban against the legitimate government of Afghanistan, Ghani should declare war on Pakistan without further delay and send troops into both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Baluchistan simultaneously declaring the Durand line a falsely divide between Afghanistan with Pakistan occupied KPK and call for the reunification of the forcefully separated Pashtun people.
Meanwhile, the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement in KP led by Manzoor Pashteen, Mohsin Dawar and Ali Wazir should step forward an up the game of freedom from Pakistan by joining the Afghan armies in the same way that the Pakistan army is collaborating with the Taliban. The Baloch liberation forces should also be facilitated to join the extended war against Pakistani military occupation.
India must become aware of the fact that Pakistan sponsored game being played by the use of Taliban will not stop at Kabul and that their next stop will be Kashmir and Kerala. Pakistan will make sure that no stone remains unturned in its endeavour to renew insurgency in Kashmir. The Talibanisation of Kerala over the past years is not a matter of coincidence but a well thought out strategy of Pakistani jihadi military.
Once the Taliban take over Kabul, jihadis in Kerala could conveniently be used by Pakistan as a tool to stretch Indian security beyond their capacity by launching country-wide acts of jihadi terrorism. What we witnessed during West Bengal elections when jihadis were attacking the BJP supporters could very easily be repeated all over Hindustan.
Hence, India must consider the withdrawal of US troops and the rapid advance of the Pakistan sponsored Taliban as a warning of what might come. And in a pincer movement both India and Afghanistan should confront Pakistan and ensure safeguard of not only their own people but also of the wider regional community.
(IANS)
India is currently facing a lot of headwinds as regards its crude import cost. The international price of crude is heading towards 100 USD per barrel. At present, it sells 98 USD per barrel. The crude price has gone up by around 30 per cent since June this year.
There are multiple reasons for the sudden spike in crude rates. The Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), including Russia and its allied countries has decided to put a squeeze on the supply.
China, after suffering from Covid-19 industrial slowdown the most, has started to increase its oil consumption. The oil consumption demand in US has also gone up. The rise in crude consumption in the US and China coupled with the decision by the OPEC to hold the crude production at the current level has threatened to push the crude rates.
India meets 85 per cent of its petroleum requirement through imports. The depreciation in rupee vis a vis US dollar may further inflate India’s oil import bill. At present, the exchange value of Indian rupee against US dollar is Rs83.
State-owned oil marketing companies (OMCs) have not revisited the rates since April 2022. The OMCs lose Rs5 for every litre of diesel that they sell while on petrol they make a profit of Rs1 only. With five states scheduled to go to polls later this year, to be followed by the General Elections in first half of 2024, the Centre is not likely to allow OMCs to increase the pump prices of fuel. But post elections, oil companies may not be restricted to raise fuel prices.
In the April-June quarter, state-owned oil firms made Rs8.60 profit on every litre of diesel they sold while they made a profit of Rs 9 on petrol. As international crude rates jumped in August and maintained the rising trend, their profits have disappeared. Since August, the crude rates have gone up by 10 USD. At present, the crude sells at 96USD.
A probable rise in fuel prices will have a cascading effect on prices of everyday consumables. The RBI maintained the repo rate (the rate at which commercial banks borrow from the RBI) and going forward, the bank may maintain its stance on the repo rate to maintain a check on the runaway rise in prices.
Any rise in the repo rate will have a deleterious impact on economic growth as a pricey interest rate will keep corporates off the banks. People will think twice before taking a credit from banks. People will cut down on their expenses –which will be a blow to economic growth.
At present, India has a comfortable position on forex. However, if the government taps onto this reserve, it will be a sure headache for the macro health of the economy.
India benefitted from the Russia-Ukrain conflict as Russia supplied crude to India at 68.17USD per barrel. However, Russia has refused to go ahead with the concessions. Last year, when international crude prices overshot 122USD per barrel, cheap oil supply from Russia insulated the country from the vagaries of the geo-political crisis.
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Several videos going viral on YouTube and other platforms have claimed that Sehaj committed suicide after the private video controversy. However, he has posted a clarification, squashing all rumours.
Sehaj shared the clarification on his social media handles. “Fake news. Media is requested to not edit old interviews and run them. Dear public don’t trust any kind of interview,” the post reportedly read.
An intimate video of Sehaj Arora and Gurpreet Kaur reportedly went viral on social media platforms.
In the viral video, the couple was seen in a compromising position. However, the couple claimed that the video was fake and generated using artificial intelligence (AI).
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