New Delhi, Apr 15: India is likely to witness above-normal monsoon this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

"IMD predicts 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole to be above normal (>104% of the Long Period Average (LPA)). Seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. LPA of monsoon rainfall (1971-2020) is 87 cm," the weather agency said in a post on X.

The IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.

The monsoon, which normally arrives in Kerala around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to total 106 per cent of the long-term average this year, said M. Ravichandran, Secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

"The forecast based on both dynamical and statistical models suggest that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall during June to September is likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average," Ravichandran said at a press conference.

IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra explained that El Nino, which tends to disrupt the monsoon, was weakening, and it would enter a neutral stage by the time the monsoon sets in.

La Nina, which is a weather phenomenon that leads to an increase in rainfall in India, would then set in by August, he said.

The monsoon plays a key role in the Indian economy as close to 50 per cent of the country's farmland does not have any other source of irrigation.

The monsoon rains are also crucial for recharging the country's reservoirs and aquifers from which the water can be used later in the year to irrigate crops.

India has emerged as a key exporter of foodgrains but had to resort to curbing overseas shipments of sugar, rice, wheat, and onions in order to increase domestic supplies and keep prices in check due to the erratic monsoon last year which hit farm production.

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